KSA Shark ©

There can only be 4


Written by Andre Bosch (KSA Shark ©)

Posted in :Currie Cup, Original Content on 14 Sep 2008 at 12:21

The only thing that is clear it that anyone still has a mathematical chance to miss out on a play-off spot. And likewise, anyone can still finish top of the log. Some miracles may be required, but possible, nonetheless.

Sharks
Current Log Position: 1st on 42 Pts
Best Possible finish: 1st on 57 Pts
Worst Possible finish: 5th on 42 Pts
Remaining Matches: Valke (A), Lions (A), Griquas (H).

Blue Bulls
Current Log Position: 2nd on 40 Pts
Best Possible finish: 1st on 55 Pts
Worst Possible finish: 5th on 40 Pts
Remaining Matches: Cheetahs (A), Griquas (A), Valke (H).

Lions
Current Log Position: 3rd on 36 Pts
Best Possible finish: 1st on 51 Pts
Worst Possible finish: 5th on 36 Pts
Remaining Matches: Boland (A), Sharks (H), WP (A)

Cheetahs
Current Log Position: 4th on 32 Pts
Best Possible finish: 1st on 47 Pts
Worst Possible finish: 6th on 32 Pts
Remaining Matches: Blue Bulls (H), Valke (A), Boland (H)

Western Province
Current Log Position: 5th on 27 Pts
Best Possible finish: 1st on 42 Pts
Worst Possible finish: 8th on 27 Pts
Remaining Matches: Griquas (H), Boland (A), Lions (H)

As I said in the introduction, some of these Best or Worst possible finishing positions may need the inclusion of a miracle or two to actually happen so let us just look at what is probably going to happen based on current form.

Probable positions

1. Sharks 56 Pts
For the Sharks to realistically finish top of the table without outside help they will need to take all three wins available to them and ensure that they get bonus points in two of those matches. I think that is actually exactly what will happen. The Sharks should take 5 points from the Valke and Griquas and 4 from the Lions, leaving them on 56pts which should be the minimum required.

2. Blue Bulls 55 Pts
Let’s face it the Blue Bulls are NOT going to lose one of their remaining three matches and will end the season on 55pts having taken max points off their last three opponents. They already have a points difference of 77 better than the Sharks. In two of their last three matches they will amass massive scores and I would not be surprised if they end with a PD in excess of 300. So the Sharks have no hope of ending above them if they finish level on points.

3. Lions 42 Pts
The Lions have the hardest run in to the finals and I only expect them to pick up 6 points in their last three games. 5 Against Boland, 1 against the Sharks and 0 against WP. They could easily upset the apple cart and take a victory against the Sharks but that will still see them finish 3rd. Victory against WP is not on the cards I am afraid.

4. Western Province 41/42 Pts
Western Province will take 5 points each off Griquas and Boland and 4 MAYBE 5 from The Lions match. 5 from the Lions match will put them level on 42 with the Lions but I think if this should happen the Lions will have a superior PD in light of them already being 57 ahead on PD. Looking at yesterdays performance it seems to me as if WP are aware of the PD deficit.

5. Cheetahs 41 Pts
They are going to be the victims of a Blue Bull stampede next week as we see the Bulls try and rack up as big a PD as possible and I don’t see them taking any points out of that match. If they take 10 points from their match ups against the Valke and Boland they will also end on 42 points. WP will have a far superior PD though and still see the Cheetahs end 5th. I don’t think they WILL take max points from the last two games and expect them to only take 9 points [Valke (5), Boland (4)] leaving them on 41Pts and missing out on the play-offs.

The big spanner in the works could be the odd upset here or there, if they could even BE called upsets. I don’t think I am being overly presumptuous in believing that the Big 5 will win all their games against the minnows in the coming weeks. That then leaves the Currie Cup with only ONE match that could go either way. I am sorry, but I just don’t see the WP / Lions match as one that could go either way, it will be a WP victory.

The decider will be played next weekend at Coca-Cola park in Johannesburg. Should everything go according to plan (The Sharks plan) then they will walk away as victors and have all but secured top spot. Should everything go according to the other plan (The Lions’ Plan) then the Sharks will find themselves ending the season in 2nd place waiting for a Semi-final visit from these same Lions who will then be comfortably 3rd at the end of the season.



35 Comments

  • Okay it took me a little longer than an hour :wink:

  • Comment 1, posted at 14.09.08 12:23:37 by KSA Shark © Reply
    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • After yesterday, I’d far rather play a semi against Free State than against Province

  • Comment 2, posted at 14.09.08 12:29:36 by robdylan Reply
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  • Prooooooovince… Proooooooooovince… die Currie Cup kom weer…

    Nah sorry for that but I’m pretty damned chuffed espcially as WP were dead and buried a few weeks ago. Thank goodness for the Cheetah implosion.

  • Comment 3, posted at 14.09.08 12:36:40 by VinChainSaw Reply
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    VinChainSawTeam captain
     
  • Oh, and thanks for the hard work KSA!

  • Comment 4, posted at 14.09.08 12:37:11 by VinChainSaw Reply
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    VinChainSawTeam captain
     
  • @robdylan (Comment 2) :

    Are you saying we should throw the Lions match to ensure we play the Lions in Dbn in the Semi? :wink:

    Where is tank lenning when you need him :roll:

  • Comment 5, posted at 14.09.08 12:41:37 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 1) : Great effort dude!! :mrgreen:

  • Comment 6, posted at 14.09.08 12:43:04 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 5) : Hehehehehe!!

  • Comment 7, posted at 14.09.08 12:43:50 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @Silver Fox (Comment 7) :

    Hey I claim that to be a VALID excuse..ag I mean reason that can be used next week if needed. :wink:

  • Comment 8, posted at 14.09.08 12:45:39 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 8) : Laughing at tank lenning :roll: :roll:

  • Comment 9, posted at 14.09.08 12:49:19 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • Do I have the F1 GP time right as in 13h00. In SA?

  • Comment 10, posted at 14.09.08 12:52:27 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @Silver Fox (Comment 10) :

    I flippen hope not then i am to late to get home. :razz:

    http://www.formula1.com/ (There is a countdown clock in the corner)

    This is the site i use when i have to follow the GP live in the office if i can’t get home. It has the same timing screen as the guys keep refering to in the studio when they say it “shows” a driver as stopped or they give you split times etc.

  • Comment 11, posted at 14.09.08 12:55:51 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • Oh and no the race is at two SA time :wink:

  • Comment 12, posted at 14.09.08 12:56:21 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 8) : Next week? We play the Valke next week :-)

    we don’t want to risk a loftus final

  • Comment 13, posted at 14.09.08 12:57:34 by robdylan Reply
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  • I have given up on the Formula 1 SB. Tired of pretending to give a damn or know anything about the sport

  • Comment 14, posted at 14.09.08 12:59:37 by robdylan Reply
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  • @robdylan (Comment 14) : I saw that part. :mrgreen:

    As I am still first and second in my respective pools, I still pretend to be a well informed expert. :roll: :lol:

  • Comment 15, posted at 14.09.08 13:03:28 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 11) : Ah ok, thanks. When in doubt, ask KSA… :smile:

  • Comment 16, posted at 14.09.08 13:06:17 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • All the Lions need is 5 points against Boland with a moerse scoreline and a bonus against either the Sharks or Province..Personally that is well possible.
    Onto the semis and anything is possible a one off match.The arrogance of the return of the all conquering Boks will only get you so far.

    Don’t make the mistake and count the Lions out yet :twisted: :wink:

  • Comment 17, posted at 14.09.08 14:09:49 by CoffeeShopBok;-) Reply

    csbSuper Rugby player
     
  • @CoffeeShopBok;-) (Comment 17) : Would still fancy a crack at you okes in the semi :-)

  • Comment 18, posted at 14.09.08 15:01:44 by robdylan Reply
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  • @CoffeeShopBok;-) (Comment 17) :

    And THAT is exactly what i said. :wink: You guys will get the 5 against Boland and then at least one maybe even two or more against us and WP and you are then assured of a play off.

  • Comment 19, posted at 14.09.08 16:21:38 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • I’m not completely convinced that we can write Free State off just yet either. They might just surprise against the bulls. I know I’ll be a cheetahs fan next week

  • Comment 20, posted at 14.09.08 16:25:44 by robdylan Reply
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  • @robdylan (Comment 20) :

    Not a hope in hell I believe. Please make sure you pick the cheetahs on SB as well hey :wink:

  • Comment 21, posted at 14.09.08 16:34:34 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • Go PROVINCE! :mrgreen:

  • Comment 22, posted at 14.09.08 20:52:14 by wpw Reply
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    wpwAssistant coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 21) : I leapfrogged you, didn’t I? :-)

  • Comment 23, posted at 14.09.08 22:45:23 by robdylan Reply
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  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 19) : It seems to me that you actually rate WP better than the Sharks if I understand the reasoning in this sentence, ” 3. Lions 42 Pts
    The Lions have the hardest run in to the finals and I only expect them to pick up 6 points in their last three games. 5 Against Boland, 1 against the Sharks and 0 against WP “.

    And you may be right. So let us hope WP does not sneak back into the semi’s. :smile:

  • Comment 24, posted at 15.09.08 05:27:31 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @robdylan (Comment 23) : You had one amazing week, having put ten places between yourself and me there. The question is, can you have three more amazing weeks? : :mrgreen: :twisted:

  • Comment 25, posted at 15.09.08 05:30:48 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @robdylan (Comment 23) :

    Yeah you did but nobody likes a braggart. :twisted:

  • Comment 26, posted at 15.09.08 05:42:51 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @Silver Fox (Comment 24) :

    I do indeed, But only because the Sharks travel to CCP and WP play the Lions at Newlands.

  • Comment 27, posted at 15.09.08 05:44:40 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @Silver Fox (Comment 25) :

    let’s hope he puts his money where his mouth is and picks the Cheetahs. :wink:

  • Comment 28, posted at 15.09.08 05:45:24 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 28) : Morning dude. Yeah, but I also say do not write off these Cheetahs too lightly.

  • Comment 29, posted at 15.09.08 05:52:14 by Silver Fox Reply

    Silver FoxCurrie Cup player
     
  • @Silver Fox (Comment 29) :

    I am afraid that the Cheetahs are done and dusted. This is the first time in 2/3 years that we have the boks back in the CC and it shows.

  • Comment 30, posted at 15.09.08 06:31:57 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • The Cheetahs WILL pick up a BP against Boland…they just might grab another one vs BULLS.

  • Comment 31, posted at 15.09.08 07:20:31 by just blackshark Reply

    blackshark - I'm back!Super Rugby player
     
  • @just blackshark (Comment 31) :

    Hey blackshark!

    How are you this morning???? :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

  • Comment 32, posted at 15.09.08 07:38:56 by wpw (Liverpool 2 Man Utd 1) Reply
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    wpwAssistant coach
     
  • Good post KSA.
    I did my own points tally last week before Weekend matches.
    I have the final log as Sharks 56, Bulls 54, Free State 42, WP 41 & Lions 41.
    Why would FS not get 5 points vs Boland in Bloem ??
    Exciting games ahead.

  • Comment 33, posted at 15.09.08 08:11:16 by Ernie Reply

    ErnieVodacom Cup player
     
  • @Ernie (Comment 33) :

    Three reasons for me making that call.

    1) I think it will be a case of the Cheetahs having to cope, both physically and mentally, with coming off 3 bruising defeats the first 3 succesive defeats in a looooooong time in the Currie cup.

    2)Baring in mind that only ONE team has a lower try scoring count in the CC than the Cheetahs at the moment and that is Boland. Out of 11 games played the Cheetahs have only scored a try bonus three times.

    3) Many of the victories against Boland by the big teams have been secured in the latter stages of the 2nd half, With Boland running them close for the entire first half.

    Those three individually are not that big but it is a case of every little thing counts.

  • Comment 34, posted at 15.09.08 08:22:30 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 34) :

    and to add to #3 above. The only team to have scored Try Bonuses in less games than the Cheetahs is also Boland.

  • Comment 35, posted at 15.09.08 08:29:24 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     

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