Morné

Boks hopes to be crushed


Written by Morné Nortier (Morné)

Posted in :Original Content, Springboks, Tri Nations, Wallabies on 7 Aug 2009 at 08:58

No need to pussy-foot around, so I will just say it, the Boks are going to lose tomorrow by about 4 points.

Sorry but there is no way to ease you into what I believe will be an upset tomorrow at Newlands. An upset, because the bookies have the Boks as firm favourites and the Aussies are well… written off it seems.

The Boks, bookies and fans it seemed took a hell of a lot of confidence out of our two recent wins over New Zealand, and so they should because it was a great achievement – but the Aussies are a completely different kettle of fish and I fear a loss tomorrow simply because I believe we will try and beat the Wallabies by playing the same type of rugby we played to beat the Blacks.

There is a difference when you front up to these two teams. The Blacks like the Boks loves the physical stuff, and we simply outklapped them in this department. We played simple rugby, kick the ball down on them and tackle the crap out of them. This was aided by the fact apart from Mills at 15 and Donald at 10, the Blacks had no great kickers in the back to take us on in this territorial battle and were forced into mistakes in their own half.

Add to this a woeful NZ line out and they were on a hiding to nothing.

At times however, when the Blacks did manage to string a couple of phases together and build momentum they penetrated the Bok defense rather easily in my view – as the Ross try illustrated last week.

With that one move, the Blacks gave the Aussies the blueprint on how to take on the Boks, and the scary part of this is, the Aussies have always been damn good at this type of rugby. Stringing together lots of phases, have their fetchers ensure quick ruck ball and then have their strike runners cut open defenses. Add their brilliant off-loading game and support play and you can smell trouble coming a long way away.

The Aussies with the exception of Lachie Turner, the right wing, all have accomplished kickers in their backline to not only repel a Bok aerial assault but also possibly out-kick them! The Aussies we know are good in the air competing for the ball and next to Victor and Bakkies, probably have the best line-out in the world.

Their scrum against the All Blacks looked much improved and as a couple of tries (and even the botched tries) showed, they are better as an attacking back unit than what the Boks are who struggled to get the ball to the wings against the All Blacks.

Our game plan against the All Blacks were perfect, we concentrated on their weaknesses and exploited it, and looking at the team selected for tomorrow, I reckon we will look to do the same against the Wallabies and that my dear friends, will cost us a win.

I have the Aussies outscoring us 3 tries to 2, the Boks to have a slender half time lead and the Aussies to exploit the loss of momentum from the Boks when the substitutions are introduced.

Prediction: Aussies by 5 or less

Teams:

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (captain), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Adi Jacobs

Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Peter Hynes, 22 James O’Connor.



55 Comments

  • Interesting call. But then again its hard to take what you write these days after yesterdays fiasco of suggesting Pienaar at 12 :lol:

    That said, i do agree – i have some serious concerns – - the Aussies can be a tricky side to play add Deans to the mix and it becomes even trickier….

    And they won’t make similar mistakes. Should be a great test.

  • Comment 1, posted at 07.08.09 09:16:57 by Worcestershire Sauce Reply
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    Worcestershire SauceCurrie Cup player
     
  • :shock:

    I think the ‘Know-it-all” have SB by 7…

    You were SO wrong last week – can it happen twice in a row?? (At least I went with my heart last week – so my SB was okay!!) :lol:

    Last night on B&A the Ausies seemed very negative towards a Ausie win…but I dont know if that is just some BS psycology attempt from there side..

  • Comment 2, posted at 07.08.09 09:18:03 by Prof. Ice (Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • @Worcestershire Sauce (Comment 1) :

    You taken over my Cheerleading Role?? :wink: JK!!

  • Comment 3, posted at 07.08.09 09:19:03 by Prof. Ice (Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • @Worcestershire Sauce (Comment 1) :

    i also believe it would be “a game for the coach” from the Oz side…it can either motivate them tremendously or go the other way…

    I do believe its not gonna be a walk in the park and the SB’s would need to play for 85minutes non-stop…also Mr Mortlock…mmmm Morras – was he a 12 or a 10?? :mrgreen:

  • Comment 4, posted at 07.08.09 09:21:43 by Prof. Ice (Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • Boks by 20.

  • Comment 5, posted at 07.08.09 09:21:52 by McLovin Reply

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  • I agree that the Aussies will be better than the All Blacks, but I also believe that SA on home soil will be too good, but just marginally.

    I think the Tri Nations is going to go the route of home wins and a bonus point here or there to make the difference.

    Morne, you also forget that a very average All Black side beat this “completely different kettle of fish” Aussie side in NZ, so let’s not make out they are world champs just yet.

    Springboks by no more than about 5 points I reckon. They are simply too good (and too well-coached!).

  • Comment 6, posted at 07.08.09 09:22:45 by Baldrick Reply

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  • Nver, If Boks take their oppurtunities in the first twenty, the aussies will not have enough to come back. But, i will say that the aussies will be more difficult than all blacks. They play a very different game and their pack is seriously underestimated. Boks by around 10. wet or dry game.

  • Comment 7, posted at 07.08.09 09:25:28 by JJR Reply
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  • Morning All.

    It’s Friday :mrgreen:

    Morne, 2 articles in 2 days – hey. Will start reading now, but can already see from the title – controversial again :wink:

  • Comment 8, posted at 07.08.09 09:26:59 by rekinek Reply
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  • @Prof. Ice (Thunder Horse) (Comment 3) : I got no pom poms :sad:

    But you are right – will be a game for the coach – which i think will back fire – the Aussies focussed on their game – dangerous – The Aussies playing for the coach misdirected…..

  • Comment 9, posted at 07.08.09 09:29:04 by Worcestershire Sauce Reply
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  • Rugby365 prediction: South Africa to win by more than 10.

  • Comment 10, posted at 07.08.09 09:39:02 by McLovin Reply

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  • Ok Morne, whatever bru.
    The boks, without any bias here, have a magnificent pack that’ll completely destroy the aussies, so it won’t really matter what their backline gets up to.
    Al Baxter as a serious challenge? I don’t think so. I rate Giteau (as everyone does) but Mortlock’s past it and their most dangerous player has just been stripped of his Aussie contract.

  • Comment 11, posted at 07.08.09 09:40:48 by CapeShark Reply
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  • I do agree with a lot of what Morne says. The ABs did look appaling at times and not all was due to SBs pressure. Yet they managed – especially in the first half – string together some good moves, outmanoever Sb defence and finish with spectacular knock on or Meisiekind pass.

    Aussies are good (and clever) with ball in hand and probably not in such bad shape as Abs so the SBs will struggle much more than people think and relying on kicking game and forcing penalties will not do.

  • Comment 12, posted at 07.08.09 09:42:58 by rekinek Reply
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  • @Worcestershire Sauce (Comment 9) :

    My feeling too actually..We have seen so many times how these emotional battles backfire…look at the Armband game.. :wink:

  • Comment 13, posted at 07.08.09 09:43:54 by Prof. Ice (Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • @rekinek (Comment 12) : The Liefling I was referring to yday was MS not DH. I hadn’t read the article…

  • Comment 14, posted at 07.08.09 09:45:24 by klempie Reply

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  • @CapeShark (Comment 11) : ok, on that note – Boks front row is Sharks row, which got bit mistreated by Warathas.

  • Comment 15, posted at 07.08.09 09:47:56 by rekinek Reply
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  • @klempie (Comment 14) : OK. YOU WON!!!! you are more confusing than Morne :mrgreen:

  • Comment 16, posted at 07.08.09 09:49:04 by rekinek Reply
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  • @rekinek (Comment 15) : BUT the Sharks front row have a lot more power behind them in Bakkies and to a lesser extend Matfield.

  • Comment 17, posted at 07.08.09 09:53:31 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @CapeShark (Comment 11) :
    Ben Robinson gave all the SA sides a torrid time, and Mortlock is still the best 13 in the business, despite what Jaque Fourie may think.

    Will be a toughie, since the Boks have had 5 tough international games already, while the Oz mob are reasonably fresh.

    If we can play the game at our pace, we will win, but Morne is right: the same gameplan won’t work against these boys.

  • Comment 18, posted at 07.08.09 09:53:34 by Big Fish Reply
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  • @Big Fish (Comment 18) : Bob Skinstad said the best number 13 in the world is also the best player in the world, so there! :razz: :wink:

  • Comment 19, posted at 07.08.09 10:09:29 by klempie Reply

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  • @klempie (Comment 19) : problem with Skinstead as a commentator is the he will never say anything wrong about his exteammates – ven if there is sth wrong.

  • Comment 20, posted at 07.08.09 10:17:26 by rekinek Reply
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  • morne you could be right here and i fear the same. i am hoping for the boks to take it and i am using a few of the detractors above reasons as my comfy blanket. but there are some areas of concern.

    alain roland was shocking at his refereeing of the all black scrumming techniques in bloem. if he missed the blatent cheating of the kiwis you can be sure he will miss the cheating of the more subtle aussies. baxter is well known for dropping scrums intentionally if the aussies haven’t got a good hit. the boks are also tired from two tough games and may not have the extra umph needed. scrums aren’t going to favour boks.

    morne steyn’s defence wasn’t tested last week, but it definately will be this week. my gut feel is he won’t get the same level of assistance he got while playing for the bulls. juan and spies aren’t getting to the attackers fast enough leaving the fly half a lot to do. expect giteau, mortlock and palu are going to target steyn. and expect him to fail.

    unlike the all blacks that played run at all costs, the aussies mix it up a lot. they have a backline full of kickers so they will easily match what the steyns show will dish out.

    mortlock vs jean. it is obvious who the winner is here. jean is an interception glory boy. mortlock is a work horse.

    and finally the aussies aren’t going to stand back in the lineouts.

    my heart says boks, but there is a little nagging inside me that says aussies. i feel though that ruan will be brought on to try and salvage the mess.

  • Comment 21, posted at 07.08.09 10:23:16 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @rekinek (Comment 20) : problem with people on this blog is that they can’t seem to tell when statements are made tongue-in-cheek. ;)

  • Comment 22, posted at 07.08.09 10:24:42 by klempie Reply

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  • @klempie (Comment 19) : Don’t know about the best in the world, but Mossie had a huge game on Saturday. He tackled like a demon, chased the high ball, took several kick off’s…..but the best in the world…I don’t know about that :roll:

  • Comment 23, posted at 07.08.09 10:25:04 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 21) : sorry add the fact that the conditions aren’t going to create the turnovers the kiwis made last week.

  • Comment 24, posted at 07.08.09 10:32:06 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 24) :

    It will be Morne and Brussow’s watershed test this.

  • Comment 25, posted at 07.08.09 10:36:10 by Morné Reply
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  • Well anyone who is going into this game expecting the Boks to have it easy has been smoking something…

    I’m confident – but it ends there…

    Bokke!!!

  • Comment 26, posted at 07.08.09 10:41:18 by blackshark Reply

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  • @Morné (Comment 25) : i think brussow will manage, it is juan, jean, morne and spies that are going to be tested. jean de villiers looks good with a defensive flyhalf next to him. ruan and butch offered this. morne won’t. spies is great on the rampage, but he slips too many tackles. if our defence holds we will win.

  • Comment 27, posted at 07.08.09 10:44:08 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • you know jean de villiers has tackled someone when he hobbles off with a shoulder injury. :lol:

  • Comment 28, posted at 07.08.09 10:46:54 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @klempie (Comment 22) : :twisted: :wink:

  • Comment 29, posted at 07.08.09 10:47:33 by rekinek Reply
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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 28) : he’s been rather bad this year, so this may be for the best. though some of this aussies backs are so small that he may just survive. :mrgreen:

  • Comment 30, posted at 07.08.09 10:49:25 by rekinek Reply
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  • @rekinek (Comment 30) : :mrgreen: problem is they are small and quick, so the old man won’t get down in time to tackle them.

  • Comment 31, posted at 07.08.09 10:51:41 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 28) :
    Ooooh! :twisted:

    Very sharp, but merciless. :oops:

  • Comment 32, posted at 07.08.09 10:54:43 by Big Fish Reply
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  • @Big Fish (Comment 32) : it is a sad day when i have to say wynand is better than someone, and unfortunately this year he has been better than most. jean needs a knife in the back for making have to admit this. :lol: :lol:

  • Comment 33, posted at 07.08.09 10:57:19 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 33) : Who Meisiekind… :roll: …He could not even make a brick high step-up this year @ Test level… :roll:

  • Comment 34, posted at 07.08.09 11:20:17 by Charlie Reply

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  • @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 31) : no matter the means – it will still save him :mrgreen:

    @try time (superrugby’s kryptonite is SANZAR) (Comment 33) : and again – jean will survive this one :mrgreen: – meisiekind not that good at test level. somehow cannot make a step up

  • Comment 35, posted at 07.08.09 11:41:00 by rekinek Reply
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  • Anybody got a weather prediciton for tomorrow at Newlands.

    I think the game will be of much higer quality than last week but I still think the Boks will take it.
    They’ve shown a knack of being able to change their gameplan of late which was *shock* *horror* probably the first time I’ve ever seen that done by SA.

    We’ll just maul them all day with Rolland refereeing.

    This is South Africa’s game to lose but if they can gain ascendency at the breakdown, which is likely with the way they are currently hunting like a pack and with Brussouws penchant for knicking balls, then their backs will be starved of ball and have to try the same deep-running as the ABs last weekend. And we all saw how that ended.

    I think the Boks still have a good 30% more to display than they showed us last week and only a tight game will bring that to the fore.

  • Comment 36, posted at 07.08.09 12:21:36 by VinChainSaw Reply
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  • @Charlie (Comment 34) : @rekinek (Comment 35) : the guy was left on the bench. he hasn’t been given a chance to show what he can do. ryan is a good player and he wasn’t given the chance either before being dropped. it is a tough call to make.

  • Comment 37, posted at 07.08.09 12:22:24 by try time (superrugby's kryptonite is SANZAR) Reply

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  • @VinChainSaw (Comment 36) :

    http://www.accuweather.com

  • Comment 38, posted at 07.08.09 12:27:30 by Prof. Ice Babe(Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • @Prof. Ice Babe(Thunder Horse) (Comment 38) :

    Thanks hun!

  • Comment 39, posted at 07.08.09 12:31:56 by VinChainSaw Reply
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  • I can see Mortlock and a few lossies targeting MS and his questionable defense!

  • Comment 40, posted at 07.08.09 12:32:13 by Rahul Reply

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  • @VinChainSaw (Comment 39) :

    Shot! :wink:

  • Comment 41, posted at 07.08.09 12:37:59 by Prof. Ice Babe(Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • got a feeling the boks will grind this one out, they seem to have the composure back to pull off the tight games

  • Comment 42, posted at 07.08.09 12:41:52 by war1 Reply
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  • @war1 (Comment 42) :

    That’s what I’m also thinking.
    If it gets tough they’ll just try to outmsucle the Ozzies and keep the ball tight. Pick and drive and maul as if their lives depended on it.

    The best part about the last two wins was that they didnt panic – just went about their business. Says a lot about Smit’s captaincy and the maturity in the team.

  • Comment 43, posted at 07.08.09 12:43:39 by VinChainSaw Reply
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  • morne, you think drew mitchell is an accomplished kicker? Nc nc nc…the boks will smash these aussies! if we dominate the tackle areas like we did against new zealand there won’t be any ball to take wide or set up phases for them! New zealand in auckland applied the same strategy in the second half when they saw the aussies best them in the open game! They kept it tight & kept crashing on to them until the aussies relented!

    Boks by 10 or more!

  • Comment 44, posted at 07.08.09 12:44:40 by quota Reply

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  • No need to pussy-foot around, so I will just say it, the Boks are going to lose tomorrow by about 4 points

    No need to pussy-foot around so I will just say it, you have a serious head injury. :wink: Boks will win and win well.

  • Comment 45, posted at 07.08.09 14:18:29 by KSA Shark © Reply

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  • klemps

    If you had said Jaque Fourie is the Tiger Woods of outside centers, well then… then you are on to something!!! :twisted: :mrgreen:

  • Comment 46, posted at 07.08.09 14:30:39 by wpw Reply
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  • @quota (Comment 44) : drew mitchell may be accomplished kicker – but with right foot only :mrgreen:

  • Comment 47, posted at 07.08.09 14:34:29 by rekinek Reply
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  • I don’t buy this whole – “We beat a weak NZ team” thing…

    The Boks did most of the basics rights – and suffocated the All Blacks…we made them look bad…

    I also don’t get the whole “ugly rugby” thing – that was beautiful.
    I’d buy that game on DVD and watch it over and over…

    Let’s not put too much pressure on Morne and Brussow now – if they do half of what they did in the previous game…and everybody else comes to the party…we’ll still win this.

    I think I picked Bokke by 6 – but I hope we can deny them a BP as well…

  • Comment 48, posted at 07.08.09 14:50:47 by blackshark Reply

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  • @blackshark (Comment 48) :

    I went for Boks by 6…

  • Comment 49, posted at 07.08.09 14:52:57 by Prof. Ice Babe(Thunder Horse) Reply
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  • @Prof. Ice Babe(Thunder Horse) (Comment 49) :

    Saw that… :smile:

  • Comment 50, posted at 07.08.09 14:58:50 by blackshark Reply

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  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 45) : Im already drunk, hope i make it to the game

  • Comment 51, posted at 08.08.09 10:39:20 by provincejoulekkading Reply
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  • @provincejoulekkading (Comment 51) :
    Gam…

    I’m on my way to Hermanus for the weekend – hope we have decent reception.

  • Comment 52, posted at 08.08.09 10:51:24 by Big Fish Reply
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  • @Big Fish (Comment 52) : Im out in the Strand.Good weather in the Mother City today.Skaam is geraam my bru,haal uit en wys.

  • Comment 53, posted at 08.08.09 11:03:50 by provincejoulekkading Reply
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  • @Morne, normally u have brilliant articles and interesting opinions, but i’ve got to ask… What have u been smoking??? :wink: Bokke by 10!

  • Comment 54, posted at 08.08.09 11:53:56 by JarsonX (Insomniac) Reply
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  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 45) :

    I have no qualms. :wink:

    I TOLD YOU SO :razz:

  • Comment 55, posted at 09.08.09 04:55:20 by KSA Shark © Reply

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