Letgo

Crunch Time


Written by Maria Delport (Letgo)

Posted in :Bulls, Lions, Original Content, Other SA Teams, Sharks, Stormers, Super Rugby on 23 May 2012 at 17:53

The closer we get to the end the easier it gets to see what the final log might look like. I broke it down by listing the teams as they are on the current log and then listing the teams that they still have to play from week 14 to 18. Below each team name I have added Home/Away (H/A), Win/Lose (W/L) as well as the log points that I think they will take away from this encounter. At the end I have included the final log points (W18) and then the current log points (W13).

I color coded my list so that the Top 6 teams are Dark Blue, the 3 teams still in the race light Blue and the Bottom 6 are Red. So you could clearly see that the Chiefs theoretically have a pretty tough road ahead with only one Bottom ranked team left in their fixtures, whereas the Stormers if they could navigate two more weeks they theoretically have a much easier finish to the competition. The third placed Brumbies according to this has the easiest final run of games.

Also it’s easy to pin point the tight games, compared to one sided games, where if teams fall in the same color category the game should be a tight one and the more the colour varies the more lopsided the game should be. Another thing to note is that any game in the Blue colour code will have an influence on the log, the more Blue teams involved the bigger the influence on the log. And finally if you’re hoping for your team to climb the log, hope for Light Blue and Red teams to beat the Dark Blue teams. Simple.

I also have a PDF version of the 6 Remaning Weeks & Bonus Points listed below.

Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Week 18 W 18 W 13
1 Chiefs Bulls Blues Highlanders Crusaders Hurricanes
(H,L,1) (A,W,5) (A,W,4) (A,L,1) (A,W,5) 65 49
2 Stormers Sharks Bulls Lions Cheethas Rebels
(A,L,1) (A,W,4) (H,W,4) (A,W,4) (H,W,4) 66 49
3 Brumbies Reds Rebels Force Waratahs Blues
(H,L,1) (A,W,5) (A,W,5) (A,W,4) (H,W,5) 64 44
4 Bulls Chiefs Stormers Cheetahs Sharks Lions
(A,W,4) (H,L,1) (H,W,4) (A,L,1) (H,W,5) 62 47
5 Crusaders Week 14 Highlanders Hurricanes Chiefs Force
(H,W,4) (H,W,5) (A,W,4) (H,W,5) 62 42
6 Sharks Stormers Lions Week 16 Bulls Cheetahs
(H,W,4) (A,W,5) (H,W,4) (H,W,5) 63 41
7 Highlanders Blues Crusaders Chiefs Reds Week 18
(A,W,5) (A,L,1) (H,L,1) (A,L,1) 51 39
8 Reds Brumbies Week 15 Rebels Highlanders Waratahs
(A,W,4) (A,W,5) (H,W,4) (H,W,4) 57 36
9 Hurricanes Rebels Waratahs Crusaders Week 17 Chiefs
(H,W,5) (A,W,5) (A,L,0) (H,L,2) 51 35
10 Rebels Hurricanes Brumbies Reds Lions Stormers
(A,L,0) (H,L,1) (H,L,1) (A,W,5) (A,L,0) 36 29
11 Waratahs Cheetahs Hurricanes Week 16 Brumbies Reds
(A,L,1) (H,L,1) (H,L,1) (A,L,1) 36 28
12 Cheetahs Waratahs Week 15 Bulls Stormers Sharks
(H,W,4) (A,L,0) (H,L,1) (A,L,0) 36 27
13 Force Lions Week 15 Brumbies Blues Crusaders
(H,W,5) (H,L,1) (A,L,1) (A,L,0) 30 19
14 Blues Highlanders Chiefs Week 16 Force Brumbies
(H,L,0) (H,L,0) (H,W,4) (A,L,1) 25 16
15 Lions Force Sharks Stormers Rebels Bulls
(A,L,2) (H,L,1) (A,L,0) (H,L,1) (A,L,1) 19 14


My prediction success this season so far is just below 70%, which means you can be almost 70% sure of this log, keeping in mind that a lot of the predictions that one usually makes an incorrect call on are the tight games which there are still 22 of amongst the top 9 teams. Still plenty can happen this season.

Here’s an Excel File for those of you who would like to change some of my predictions and see how it would effect the log week by week.



17 Comments

  • Hope the Lions beat the Force and Rebels, we need it

  • Comment 1, posted at 23.05.12 18:21:44 by Mutley Reply
    MutleySuper Rugby player
     
  • So you`re predicting a stormers result when they play the bulls at loftus?

  • Comment 2, posted at 23.05.12 18:22:21 by Original Pierre Reply
    Author
    Original PierreSuper Rugby player
     
  • You don’t see the Chiefs getting bonus points against the Blues and Canes?

  • Comment 3, posted at 23.05.12 18:31:46 by Bokhoring Reply

    BokhoringSuper Rugby player
     
  • No bonus points?
    With a bit of luck the Bulls could still lose 4/5. Cheetahs are a tough nut to crack when they have nothing to lose. And the Bulls look to be dropping form

  • Comment 4, posted at 23.05.12 18:43:01 by Die Kriek Reply

    Currie Cup player
     
  • Lions playing the Lions this week? :)

  • Comment 5, posted at 23.05.12 19:05:48 by KSA Shark © Reply

    KSA Shark ©Head Coach
     
  • Do you think they’ll manage a win? :lol:

  • Comment 6, posted at 23.05.12 20:18:33 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 5) :

  • Comment 7, posted at 23.05.12 20:23:05 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     
  • @KSA Shark © (Comment 5) :

    :lol: should be a close fought nil all draw …

  • Comment 8, posted at 23.05.12 20:42:06 by csb Reply

    csbSuper Rugby player
     
  • The bulls will not beat the Chiefs, as they would not have beaten the HL last week….

  • Comment 9, posted at 24.05.12 06:22:53 by Franshark Reply
    Author
    FransharkTeam captain
     
  • The omission of bonus points, especially as the top of the log is so congested, throws the entire thing off.

    The Crusaders, who then finish 6th behind the Sharks, are likely to pick up bonus points, and more than just one.

  • Comment 10, posted at 24.05.12 06:27:22 by Richard Ferguson Reply
    Competition Winner Administrator
    Richard FergusonCoach
     
  • If Stormers can see of one of Bulls / Sharks away, they should just sneak into top spot on the log, by virtue of number of wins counting more than points difference for the same position on the log.

    Should they loose both these tough games (not entirely impossible), they are going to have demolish the Cheetahs, Lions and Rebels (score 4 tries in each) to be in the same position – this time with a worse win-loose ratio

  • Comment 11, posted at 24.05.12 08:09:58 by Bokhoring Reply

    BokhoringSuper Rugby player
     
  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 9) : Okay, I’ve added bonus points where I thought teams might score four tries, I’ve also added an excel file where you can change the predictions and see how it effects the log week by week.

  • Comment 12, posted at 24.05.12 09:11:02 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     
  • @Letgo (Comment 11) :

    So you are saying the Sharks will finish fourth?

  • Comment 13, posted at 24.05.12 09:20:42 by Richard Ferguson Reply
    Competition Winner Administrator
    Richard FergusonCoach
     
  • @Letgo (Comment 11) :

    Personally..

    I think the Bulls will beat the Cheetahs with the bonus point, thus putting them in fourth and us in fifth/sixth

  • Comment 14, posted at 24.05.12 09:21:47 by Richard Ferguson Reply
    Competition Winner Administrator
    Richard FergusonCoach
     
  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 12) : Possibly. So many things could still happen. I do however think the Top 6 will stay the same, but their order could still change a lot. As you can see by my predictions there’s only 1 point here and there between the teams. Points difference and bonus points even surprise losses will still effect all of this.

    I just don’t think any of the chasing three will get into the Top 6. Aside from the Reds if they could manage a win against the Brumbies and narrow the gap in points between them.

    Also if the sharks lose more than one of their difficult games Stormers/Bulls we will also be in trouble.

  • Comment 15, posted at 24.05.12 12:20:11 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     
  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 13) : Very possible, they could also take a win from either the stormers or even the Sharks. And still lose against the Chiefs this weekend.

    But you have to admit with each week that passes we get closer to the final picture. So this is as close that I’ve been ever.

    In week 6 this was my prediction

    63 Stormers
    61 Crusaders
    61 Sharks
    59 Bulls
    58 Chiefs
    55 Reds
    54 Brumbies
    51 Highlanders
    44 Waratahs
    41 Hurricanes
    35 Cheetahs
    32 Blues
    31 Force
    22 Lions
    21 Rebels

    Although there’s a few changes, I think I was pretty accurate for more than 10 weeks out from the last pool game.

  • Comment 16, posted at 24.05.12 12:25:36 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     
  • @Letgo (Comment 15) : The only change in the top 6 is the Reds for the Brumbies, which is still very possible if the Reds wins this weekend.

  • Comment 17, posted at 24.05.12 12:27:08 by Letgo Reply
    Author
    LetgoTeam captain
     

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