The closer we get to the end the easier it gets to see what the final log might look like. I broke it down by listing the teams as they are on the current log and then listing the teams that they still have to play from week 14 to 18. Below each team name I have added Home/Away (H/A), Win/Lose (W/L) as well as the log points that I think they will take away from this encounter. At the end I have included the final log points (W18) and then the current log points (W13).
I color coded my list so that the Top 6 teams are Dark Blue, the 3 teams still in the race light Blue and the Bottom 6 are Red. So you could clearly see that the Chiefs theoretically have a pretty tough road ahead with only one Bottom ranked team left in their fixtures, whereas the Stormers if they could navigate two more weeks they theoretically have a much easier finish to the competition. The third placed Brumbies according to this has the easiest final run of games.
Also it’s easy to pin point the tight games, compared to one sided games, where if teams fall in the same color category the game should be a tight one and the more the colour varies the more lopsided the game should be. Another thing to note is that any game in the Blue colour code will have an influence on the log, the more Blue teams involved the bigger the influence on the log. And finally if you’re hoping for your team to climb the log, hope for Light Blue and Red teams to beat the Dark Blue teams. Simple.
I also have a PDF version of the 6 Remaning Weeks & Bonus Points listed below.
| Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | W 18 | W 13 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | Chiefs | Bulls | Blues | Highlanders | Crusaders | Hurricanes | |||||||||||||||
| (H,L,1) | (A,W,5) | (A,W,4) | (A,L,1) | (A,W,5) | 65 | 49 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | Stormers | Sharks | Bulls | Lions | Cheethas | Rebels | |||||||||||||||
| (A,L,1) | (A,W,4) | (H,W,4) | (A,W,4) | (H,W,4) | 66 | 49 | |||||||||||||||
| 3 | Brumbies | Reds | Rebels | Force | Waratahs | Blues | |||||||||||||||
| (H,L,1) | (A,W,5) | (A,W,5) | (A,W,4) | (H,W,5) | 64 | 44 | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | Bulls | Chiefs | Stormers | Cheetahs | Sharks | Lions | |||||||||||||||
| (A,W,4) | (H,L,1) | (H,W,4) | (A,L,1) | (H,W,5) | 62 | 47 | |||||||||||||||
| 5 | Crusaders | Week 14 | Highlanders | Hurricanes | Chiefs | Force | |||||||||||||||
| (H,W,4) | (H,W,5) | (A,W,4) | (H,W,5) | 62 | 42 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Sharks | Stormers | Lions | Week 16 | Bulls | Cheetahs | |||||||||||||||
| (H,W,4) | (A,W,5) | (H,W,4) | (H,W,5) | 63 | 41 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Highlanders | Blues | Crusaders | Chiefs | Reds | Week 18 | |||||||||||||||
| (A,W,5) | (A,L,1) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,1) | 51 | 39 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Reds | Brumbies | Week 15 | Rebels | Highlanders | Waratahs | |||||||||||||||
| (A,W,4) | (A,W,5) | (H,W,4) | (H,W,4) | 57 | 36 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Hurricanes | Rebels | Waratahs | Crusaders | Week 17 | Chiefs | |||||||||||||||
| (H,W,5) | (A,W,5) | (A,L,0) | (H,L,2) | 51 | 35 | ||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Rebels | Hurricanes | Brumbies | Reds | Lions | Stormers | |||||||||||||||
| (A,L,0) | (H,L,1) | (H,L,1) | (A,W,5) | (A,L,0) | 36 | 29 | |||||||||||||||
| 11 | Waratahs | Cheetahs | Hurricanes | Week 16 | Brumbies | Reds | |||||||||||||||
| (A,L,1) | (H,L,1) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,1) | 36 | 28 | ||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Cheetahs | Waratahs | Week 15 | Bulls | Stormers | Sharks | |||||||||||||||
| (H,W,4) | (A,L,0) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,0) | 36 | 27 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Force | Lions | Week 15 | Brumbies | Blues | Crusaders | |||||||||||||||
| (H,W,5) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,1) | (A,L,0) | 30 | 19 | ||||||||||||||||
| 14 | Blues | Highlanders | Chiefs | Week 16 | Force | Brumbies | |||||||||||||||
| (H,L,0) | (H,L,0) | (H,W,4) | (A,L,1) | 25 | 16 | ||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Lions | Force | Sharks | Stormers | Rebels | Bulls | |||||||||||||||
| (A,L,2) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,0) | (H,L,1) | (A,L,1) | 19 | 14 | |||||||||||||||
My prediction success this season so far is just below 70%, which means you can be almost 70% sure of this log, keeping in mind that a lot of the predictions that one usually makes an incorrect call on are the tight games which there are still 22 of amongst the top 9 teams. Still plenty can happen this season.
Here’s an Excel File for those of you who would like to change some of my predictions and see how it would effect the log week by week.
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Hope the Lions beat the Force and Rebels, we need it
So you`re predicting a stormers result when they play the bulls at loftus?
You don’t see the Chiefs getting bonus points against the Blues and Canes?
No bonus points?
With a bit of luck the Bulls could still lose 4/5. Cheetahs are a tough nut to crack when they have nothing to lose. And the Bulls look to be dropping form
Lions playing the Lions this week?
Do you think they’ll manage a win?
@KSA Shark © (Comment 5) :
@KSA Shark © (Comment 5) :
The bulls will not beat the Chiefs, as they would not have beaten the HL last week….
The omission of bonus points, especially as the top of the log is so congested, throws the entire thing off.
The Crusaders, who then finish 6th behind the Sharks, are likely to pick up bonus points, and more than just one.
If Stormers can see of one of Bulls / Sharks away, they should just sneak into top spot on the log, by virtue of number of wins counting more than points difference for the same position on the log.
Should they loose both these tough games (not entirely impossible), they are going to have demolish the Cheetahs, Lions and Rebels (score 4 tries in each) to be in the same position – this time with a worse win-loose ratio
@Richard Ferguson (Comment 9) : Okay, I’ve added bonus points where I thought teams might score four tries, I’ve also added an excel file where you can change the predictions and see how it effects the log week by week.
@Letgo (Comment 11) :
So you are saying the Sharks will finish fourth?
@Letgo (Comment 11) :
Personally..
I think the Bulls will beat the Cheetahs with the bonus point, thus putting them in fourth and us in fifth/sixth
@Richard Ferguson (Comment 12) : Possibly. So many things could still happen. I do however think the Top 6 will stay the same, but their order could still change a lot. As you can see by my predictions there’s only 1 point here and there between the teams. Points difference and bonus points even surprise losses will still effect all of this.
I just don’t think any of the chasing three will get into the Top 6. Aside from the Reds if they could manage a win against the Brumbies and narrow the gap in points between them.
Also if the sharks lose more than one of their difficult games Stormers/Bulls we will also be in trouble.
@Richard Ferguson (Comment 13) : Very possible, they could also take a win from either the stormers or even the Sharks. And still lose against the Chiefs this weekend.
But you have to admit with each week that passes we get closer to the final picture. So this is as close that I’ve been ever.
In week 6 this was my prediction
63 Stormers
61 Crusaders
61 Sharks
59 Bulls
58 Chiefs
55 Reds
54 Brumbies
51 Highlanders
44 Waratahs
41 Hurricanes
35 Cheetahs
32 Blues
31 Force
22 Lions
21 Rebels
Although there’s a few changes, I think I was pretty accurate for more than 10 weeks out from the last pool game.
@Letgo (Comment 15) : The only change in the top 6 is the Reds for the Brumbies, which is still very possible if the Reds wins this weekend.