King Shark

Who has the golden boots?


Written by Andre Liebenberg (King Shark)

Posted in :Original Content, Springboks, Super Rugby on 25 May 2012 at 12:20
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A lot has been said about who the Springbok flyhalf should be. Many believe that it will be Morne Steyn because of his kicking game. Viking and I did a quick analysis of all the Super Rugby games involving our five premier flyhalf options up to round 13. Thanks to Rugby Stats for the data.

Peter Grant leads the stats in terms of accuracy, although he has only attempted 23 kicks to date. Feel free to interpret that one for yourself. I tend to go with the argument that he only makes limited attempts because he is a limited kicker. Elton Jantjies, although 3rd most accurate, has only attempted 32 kicks at goal. In my opinion these figures are not worth a great deal as the statistical significance is fairly low.

Johan Goosen, Morne Steyn and Pat Lambie managed in excess of 50 attempts each. Goosen has attempted 56 kicks with an accuracy of nearly 86%, with Lambie slotting nearly 80% of his 54 attempts. Steyn was the worst of the South African flyhalf contenders with less than a 75% success rate. What is also noticeable is the erratic performance that Steyn has delivered from the tee this season, ranging between 38% and 100% per game. Goosen again leads the pack in terms of consistency, ranging between 78% and 100% per game.

Bottom line is that Steyn is not the golden boot of the past and one has to ask whether it would not be worthwhile giving someone else the number 10 jersey for the upcoming tests against England. A lot will depend on the playing style that Meyer will employ in the upcoming tests. Will it be a Bulls kicking approach, a Stormers defence approach or a balance between the two that the Sharks seems to use? So, the team thet Meyer picks for the first test will tell us a lot about the type of game the boks will play.

Peter Grant Pat Lambie
Converted Attempted % Converted Attempted %
2 2 100% 3 5 60%
1 1 100% 4 6 67%
3 3 100% 5 7 71%
5 5 100% 5 5 100%
3 3 100% 6 7 86%
4 5 80% 4 6 67%
2 4 50% 4 5 80%
8 8 100%
4 5 80%
20 23 43 54
87.0% 79.6%
Morne Steyn Johan Goosen
Converted Attempted % Converted Attempted %
5 7 71% 6 6 100%
9 10 90% 5 5 100%
3 7 43% 5 6 83%
8 8 100% 7 9 78%
3 5 60% 4 5 80%
8 10 80% 7 9 78%
3 8 38% 5 6 83%
8 10 80% 4 5 80%
7 7 100% 5 5 100%
5 5 100%
2 5 40%
61 82 48 56
74.4% 85.7%
Elton Jantjies
Converted Attempted %
9 11 82%
4 5 80%
0 1 0%
2 3 67%
4 4 100%
3 3 100%
1 1 100%
4 4 100%
27 32
84.4%


35 Comments

  • Lambie has been getting better each week
    Morne, the less we say, the better

  • Comment 1, posted at 25.05.12 12:28:18 by Die Kriek Reply
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  • That settles it then.

    Peter Grant bok flyhalve with Lambie at 15 ! :mrgreen:

  • Comment 2, posted at 25.05.12 12:49:11 by Original Pierre Reply
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    Original PierreSuper Rugby player
     
  • Meyer will pick Steyn finished and klaar. In a recent interview he spoke of how good a tactical player Steyn is, some of us will scoff at this as he clearly is a limited attacker who tackles like a fairy IMO.
    However, in Meyer’s mind good tactical kicker = good tactical player.

  • Comment 3, posted at 25.05.12 12:50:20 by neilster Reply

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  • So Steyn is the worst of the lot?

    What worries me though, is the fact that Lambie is second worst?!

  • Comment 4, posted at 25.05.12 12:52:43 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • Should I…???

    Ja why not, it’s derby week…

    Okay so let me understand this quickly.

    Grant, who has had approx. attempted 30 kicks less than Lambie/Goosen’s stats is seemingly insignificant (even though kicking duties are shared between him and Joe and he joined the comp a week or so later too).

    But Lambie, who has attempted about 30 kicks less than Morne and only leads him by about 4% is telling?

    Or am I reading the wrong numbers here?

  • Comment 5, posted at 25.05.12 12:56:29 by Morné Reply
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  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 4) : You really should say 2nd best, as Elton and Peter doesn’t really count with their low number of attempts.

  • Comment 6, posted at 25.05.12 12:58:13 by King Shark Reply
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    King SharkVodacom Cup player
     
  • Eh, Rob! I see you credited my co-writer for the article :shock:

    No biggie though – teasing ;-)

  • Comment 7, posted at 25.05.12 12:59:07 by King Shark Reply
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    King SharkVodacom Cup player
     
  • @Morné (Comment 5) : No. If you have an understanding of statistics, then you would realise that you need a sample of at least 30 observations for your data to bear statistical significance.

  • Comment 8, posted at 25.05.12 13:00:51 by King Shark Reply
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  • @King Shark (Comment 8) : And by default that means that Morne’s poor performance is the most legit observation of the lot.

  • Comment 9, posted at 25.05.12 13:01:33 by King Shark Reply
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  • @King Shark (Comment 8) :

    Perhaps I don’t understand statistics then :)

    Why is 30 the magic number? What is its significance?

  • Comment 10, posted at 25.05.12 13:04:39 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 10) : Oops, just realised I sounded like a d*ck in my tone, sorry guy.

    The reeeaaally clever blokes determined that to be the threshold at which you should analyse data. Less than that means that one has to apply additional rules and any interpretation you make is then subject to a number of constraints.

  • Comment 11, posted at 25.05.12 13:07:26 by King Shark Reply
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    King SharkVodacom Cup player
     
  • @King Shark (Comment 6) :

    @Richard Ferguson (Comment 4) : You really should say 2nd best, as Elton and Peter doesn’t really count with their low number of attempts.

    But Elton has over 30 attempts?

  • Comment 12, posted at 25.05.12 13:07:55 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 10) :

    You’ve been scarce!

    @King Shark (Comment 9) :

    Stop the argument right there….it’s virtually impossible to win an argument with Morné. :twisted:

  • Comment 13, posted at 25.05.12 13:08:52 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @King Shark (Comment 7) : have fixed :)

  • Comment 14, posted at 25.05.12 13:08:55 by robdylan Reply
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  • @King Shark (Comment 11) :

    Oh like the pressure under which the kicks are taken etc?

  • Comment 15, posted at 25.05.12 13:09:23 by Morné Reply
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  • @Pokkel (Comment 13) :

    Ja china running around hey.

    Hang on – I still owe you something don’t I?

  • Comment 16, posted at 25.05.12 13:10:13 by Morné Reply
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  • @robdylan (Comment 14) : Thanks!

    @Morné (Comment 12) : Disqualified for daring to play for the Lions! :twisted:

    @Pokkel (Comment 13) : Haha! I’ll withdraw immediately, but for the simple reason that I have to run. Got a pub lunch in Rivonia!

  • Comment 17, posted at 25.05.12 13:11:28 by King Shark Reply
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    King SharkVodacom Cup player
     
  • @Morné (Comment 16) :

    I dunno…do you? :twisted:

    I’ll mail you. I tried on the ones I chose and I’m not sure it suits my ugly mugg! :oops:

  • Comment 18, posted at 25.05.12 13:12:00 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @Pokkel (Comment 18) :

    Well it is a good thing I bloody forgot about it then!!!

    You still got the pick bud – one other pair is gone but still 4 more to choose from – let me know and I am terribly sorry!

  • Comment 19, posted at 25.05.12 13:14:02 by Morné Reply
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  • @King Shark (Comment 17) :

    Haha, ja can’t beat the Lions argument.

    But all jokes aside, my flyhalf will be Morne – we have not got a better tactical kicker at 10 in SA.

    And I am hoping beyond all hell Lambie has a blinder tomorrow because he is playing where I have wanted him to play for a very, very long time now.

  • Comment 20, posted at 25.05.12 13:15:28 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 19) :

    I’ll consult with my fashion expert(die vrou) and let you know alter today.

  • Comment 21, posted at 25.05.12 13:17:46 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 20) : When I remove my Shark’s goggles (if only for a very brief moment) I agree with you.

  • Comment 22, posted at 25.05.12 13:18:46 by King Shark Reply
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    King SharkVodacom Cup player
     
  • @Morné (Comment 20) :

    You are predicting a Stormers win though, aren’t you?

  • Comment 23, posted at 25.05.12 13:19:38 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @Pokkel (Comment 21) :

    Cool, can ship tomorrow for you then.

    @King Shark (Comment 22) :

    Haha – you guys are no fun to banter with.

    @Pokkel (Comment 23) :

    I am afraid no – which is bad news for you folks – got the Sharks to win by 6 (or 4)…

  • Comment 24, posted at 25.05.12 13:24:26 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 24) :

    Would you bring back FdP if you were coach?

  • Comment 25, posted at 25.05.12 13:25:42 by Pokkel Reply
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  • @Pokkel (Comment 25) :

    Given how Hougaard is struggling I would actually seriously consider it. But that is about the only guy I would bring in from outside SA – him and Fransie of course.

    Just scared both will be off the pace a bit. But Fransie playing in a semi this weekend, hoping to catch the game.

  • Comment 26, posted at 25.05.12 13:28:10 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 24) : last I remembered, u were spot on…so I am happy!

  • Comment 27, posted at 25.05.12 13:36:32 by Ice Reply
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  • @Ice (Comment 27) :

    I was indeed, I can see how you are hoping my form lasts!

  • Comment 28, posted at 25.05.12 13:39:41 by Morné Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 28) : Indeed!

  • Comment 29, posted at 25.05.12 15:09:43 by Ice Reply
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  • @Morné (Comment 26) : It should be a good game. I had tickets to go but had to give them away :sad:

  • Comment 30, posted at 25.05.12 15:28:24 by lostfish Reply
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  • I just find it disappointing that 1D Steyn will be the flyhalf. We have a few other more exciting albeit less experienced options.

  • Comment 31, posted at 25.05.12 15:42:29 by lostfish Reply
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  • Would be interesting to show the average distance of all kicks taken along with the statistics

  • Comment 32, posted at 25.05.12 15:59:59 by Bokhoring Reply

    BokhoringSuper Rugby player
     
  • What i’d like to see is the stats for tactical kicking, not conversions and penalties. How many tactical kicks have been made that were successful (ie: got the attacking team further up the field and possession of the ball)? Kicking for poles is a mug’s game and should not be the deciding factor on who get’s the flyhalf slot. It’s the intelligence behind the kicking that’s important – when the kicks were taken, why they were taken, what advantage the kick gave the attacking team and whether the kick led to points on the board for the attacking team rather than the defending team (how many punts have led to the attacking side losing possession and the opposing side scoring?)
    And then there’s the issue about tackles missed. How many tackles has Morne missed this season, for example?
    Any fool can kick if you ask Naas and co. Anyone can be taught to kick. But kicking accurately, under pressure, with tactical intelligence, plus the ability to alter your kicking game to suit the opponents and what is going on in front of you… that’s where a flyhalf’s strength really lays. Not in his ability to punt it between the uprights.
    And I’ll hazard a guess that you all know who I think leads the pack in that respect.
    :mrgreen:

  • Comment 33, posted at 25.05.12 18:35:47 by Shaz Reply
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    ShazCurrie Cup player
     
  • @Shaz (Comment 33) : Punting it between the uprights is just an added bonus. Just ask Jonny ;-)

  • Comment 34, posted at 25.05.12 19:19:22 by lostfish Reply
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  • @Shaz (Comment 33) : ja well, but that’s gonna be difficult. If a flyhalf kicks upfield, surely he’d need a chaser to try and keep posession. That would also depend on how far he kicks, too far and posession is lost. Posession could also be lost with a short kick. Primarily, isn’t the FH’s job to make points by goalkicking and dropgoals. Sure, if he’s a good defender, reader of the game, game breaker and playmaker, it’s the perfect 10 (so to speak!) But too much depends on tactical kicking to be able to have ‘real’ stats about it. Chasers, weather conditions etc. So, I think this will be a case of who “looks” better than necessarily factual stats? In all, what does the best tactical kicker help, if he kicking for goal is a mug’s game? If you need 2 points to win…it sure as hell is vital..

  • Comment 35, posted at 25.05.12 20:58:12 by Ice Reply
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