JD

100% support 100% of the time


Written by Jan Dyman (JD)

Posted in :Original Content, Reader Submissions, Sharks, Super Rugby on 6 May 2014 at 09:49
Tagged with : , , , , , , ,

On a slow news day here on Sharksworld (due to a public holiday for Rob) let’s see how the Sharks are doing:

In the first four games of the season the Sharks scored 130 points and 12 tries whilst conceding 68 points and 5 tries. In the following six games the Sharks scored 135 points and only 6 tries whilst conceding 103 points and 9 tries.

So yes it would seem to indicate a dip in performance but there are some mitigating factors. All four the first games were home games and Jake White could pick the best possible teams. Of the last six games only three games were played at home and some important players like Pat Lambie, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Paul Jordaan and Cobus Reinach were lost due to injuries, with Jordaan and Reinach only able to start playing again on tour.

The Sharks scored the fifth most points. Only the Hurricanes at 297 points, Blues – 278 points, Cheetahs – 277 points and Chiefs – 267 points have scored more points than the Sharks but all of them have also conceded more than 50 points more than the Sharks (Hurricanes at 263 points, Blues – 264 points, Cheetahs – 370 points and Chiefs – 227 points).

The Sharks have conceded the least points (only 171) followed by Crusaders – 189 points, Waratahs – 196 points and Force – 197 points.

From the above information it is clear that all is not perfect but it is not all doom and gloom either.

So now let’s look what the future could hold for the Sharks and the other playoff contenders:

The only team in the SA Conference able to challenge the Sharks for top spot is the Bulls as the 19 points gap to the Lions and 20 points to the Stormers are too big for them to be contenders for the top spot.

Bulls:
Currently the Bulls are on 24 points with 5 games left.
Realistically the only chance the Bulls will have to qualify for the playoffs will be to finish top of the SA conference.
They still have to play the Stormers at home and away, the Lions away and the Brumbies and Rebels at home. With a maximum of 25 points on offer they could end on 49 points, but with the Stormers and Brumbies accounting for three of their last five games I do not think they will score more than 19 points.
So the Bulls should finish on 43 log points.

In the Australian Conference the Brumbies, Waratahs and Force could still make the playoffs.

Waratahs:
Currently the Waratahs are on 29 points with 6 games left.
The Waratahs are my favourite to finish top of the Australian conference.
Home games against the Lions, Brumbies and Highlanders should result in 13 log points and away games against Rebels, Chiefs and Reds could give them another 8 log points.
By the end the Waratahs should be on 50 log points.

Brumbies:
Currently the Brumbies are on 30 points with 6 games left.
The Brumbies should reach the playoffs.
Home games against the Sharks, Rebels and Force should result in 9 log points (yes I did go for a Sharks win), but the away games could be the Brumbies biggest challenge as they still need to travel to SA to play the Cheetahs and Bulls and then after the international break they also play the Waratahs away and so the away games should add 10 log points.
By the end the Brumbies should be on 49 log points.

Force:
Currently the Force are on 27 points with 7 games left.
According the current standing the Force should reach the playoffs as they still have seven games left.
Home games against the Lions, Blues and Reds should add 13 log points. The away games are their main problem with the Cheetahs and Stormers in SA and the Crusaders in NZ followed by the last away game against the Brumbies not adding more than 7 log points.
By the end the Force should be on 47 log points.

The New Zeeland Conference is the closest of the three with all the teams still in the running for a spot in the playoffs.

Crusaders:
Currently the Crusaders are on 26 points with 7 games left.
Home games against the Sharks, Force, Blues and Highlanders should add 17 log points and away games against the Reds, Highlanders and Hurricanes could add another 9 log points.
By the end the Crusaders should be on 52 log points.

Chiefs:
Currently the Chiefs are on 30 points with 6 games left.
Home and away games against the Blues and Hurricanes should add 12 log points and a home game against the Waratahs and an away game against the Highlanders should add another 7 log points.
By the end the Chiefs should be on 49 log points.

Hurricanes:
Currently the Hurricanes are on 26 points with 6 games left.
Home and away games against the Chiefs should add 5 log points and home games against the Highlanders, and Crusaders should add another 5 log points. Away games against Rebels and Blues could also add 6 log points.
By the end the Hurricanes should be on 42 log points.

Highlanders:
Currently the Highlanders are on 26 points with 7 games left.
Home and away games against the Crusaders could add 4 log points. Home games against the Lions and Chiefs could also add 6 log points and away games against the Hurricanes, Reds, Waratahs should add another 6 log points.
By the end the Highlanders should be on 42 log points.

Blues:
Currently the Blues are on 25 points with 6 games left.
Home games against the Sharks, Hurricanes, Force and Chiefs should add 13 log points and away games against Chiefs and Crusaders could add another 3 log points.
By the end the Blues should be on 41 log points.

Now I saved the best for last.

The Sharks:
Currently the Sharks are on 35 points with 6 games left.
The three remaining tour games against the Brumbies, Crusaders and Blues could add 6 log points. The Sharks only home game is against the Stormers and should add 4 log points and the two away games against the Cheetahs and Stormers, after the international break, could add another 5 points.
So by the end the Sharks should be on 50 log points.

So here is my prediction for the final log:
1. Crusaders – 52 log points.
2. Sharks – 50 log points
3. Waratahs – 50 log points.
4. Chiefs – 49 log points.
5. Brumbies – 49 log points.
6. Force – 47 log points.
7. Bulls – 43 log points.
8. Hurricanes – 42 log points.
9. Highlanders – 42 log points.
10. Blues – 41 log points.

We all know the Sharks are far from perfect, the attacking play, defence and finishing all needs to be improved but let’s give the guys our full support: 100% support 100% of the time.



10 Comments

  • The Saders I feel had to bad a start to take top spot, sure they are playing well now but I still feel If the Sharks can beat the Brumbies and either the Blues or Saders we will be in good enough position to keep top spot.

    Also could someone please remind the South African media that the Sharks do in fact exist and are a South African conference team! I am amazed how some teams can be quite literally at the bottom of the table and still be praised as the best thing since sliced bread, after one win?

  • Comment 1, posted at 06.05.14 09:54:56 by Seth101 Reply
    Valued Sharksworld Supporter Author
    NostrasethTeam captain
     
  • Alternatively if the Sharks manage another 3 points on tour and 3 wins in SA, they will also finish on 50 points.

  • Comment 2, posted at 06.05.14 10:11:10 by Bokhoring Reply
    Administrator
    BokhoringAssistant coach
     
  • I have to disagree with the notion that the Force will get 7 away points as I see them losing all of their away games with no bonus point.

  • Comment 3, posted at 06.05.14 11:44:19 by Chippa Reply

    ChippaVodacom Cup player
     
  • @Seth101 (Comment 1) : don’t forget it was a bonus point win and that’s more important than leading the overall log. :twisted:

  • Comment 4, posted at 06.05.14 13:13:15 by JD Reply
    Friend of SharksworldCompetition Winner Administrator
    JDAssistant coach
     
  • I feel like the Sharks can only afford 1 more loss if they want to end up top of the log, unless they pick up at least 4 bonus points, let’s say 3 losing and 1 winning.

    So 35 + 20 (5 wins) or –
    35 + 17 (4 wins. 1 bp) + 3 (losing bp)

    = 55

    I just have a feeling that 55 will be the magic number. I’m thinking that one of the Brumbies, Crusaders, Waratahs and Chiefs could just have one more win in them than predicted in this article.

    Oh and don’t count the Bulls out. The Brumbies are their biggest threat. If they can take 5 from 6, they’ll end with 44 before counting bp’s. The Sharks could easily drop 3 games on tour and find themselves hanging on to the conference lead in 3 weeks time. Remember, the Brumbies travel to Loftus to play the Bulls, so even that match isn’t a given.

  • Comment 5, posted at 06.05.14 15:42:12 by Letgo Reply
    Friend of Sharksworld Author
    LetgoAssistant coach
     
  • Nice one JD!

  • Comment 6, posted at 06.05.14 17:41:30 by vanmartin Reply
    Friend of Sharksworld Author
    vanmartinAssistant coach
     
  • @vanmartin (Comment 6) : thanx I just hope I’m closer with this predictions than on SuperBru and LMS.

  • Comment 7, posted at 06.05.14 21:17:37 by JD Reply
    Friend of SharksworldCompetition Winner Administrator
    JDAssistant coach
     
  • @Chippa (Comment 3) : Force got a real chance to beat the Cheatahs and collect some points against the Bulls.

  • Comment 8, posted at 06.05.14 21:46:47 by JD Reply
    Friend of SharksworldCompetition Winner Administrator
    JDAssistant coach
     
  • Great article, and nice to see your positive outlook here. I am rather more conservative, but all to themselves. lets see how we go. The final will be won by the home team. lets formulate that.

  • Comment 9, posted at 10.05.14 11:56:42 by Gerhardt Reply

    GerhardtCurrie Cup player
     
  • @Gerhardt (Comment 9) : thanks, just hope the Sharks can do it this year.

  • Comment 10, posted at 10.05.14 23:13:07 by JD Reply
    Friend of SharksworldCompetition Winner Administrator
    JDAssistant coach
     

Add Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.