robdylan

Super Rugby 2015: Round 2


Written by Rob Otto (robdylan)

Posted in :Lions, Original Content, Sharks, Super Rugby on 19 Feb 2015 at 13:47
Tagged with : , , , ,

We missed out on a proper preview thread last week, which in hindsight was good since it would have been a dog-show anyway! Let’s look at our featured match in detail, while adding predictions for the other clashes too.

Sharks v Lions (Saturday at 7:10pm)

An interesting match-up awaits in Durban between two sides fancied to do well in the South African conference. They’re also two sides that lost at home last week, making this week’s game a pretty important one, although arguably a little more so for the home side, who will not want to start the season with a 0/2 record at Kings Park. While the Lions have definitely had the Sharks’ number in Currie Cup rugby of late, the tale at Super Rugby level is a little different; a shock 38-28 win at Ellis Park in 2012 aside, one has to go back to 2001 to find the last time a Lions (in effect Cats) team recorded a victory over the Sharks. There have been two draws as well, but it gets even worse when looking for a Lions/Cats win in Durban – the last of those was 15 years ago.

History means nothing, of course, but what does? If it’s form, then again we are up the creek in terms of trying to predict the outcome, since neither side has any of that. Both the Lions and the Sharks tried to play a lot of rugby last week and both came unstuck in the process. Will either of the teams opt to be more conservative this time around and will it help them? My gut says no, but the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

I need to divert on a rant. Please stop saying “the proof is in the pudding”. It is wrong, it is meaningless and it shows ignorance. My usage of the saying, as above, is correct. Thanks!

Back to rugby – how do we see this contest unfolding? The Lions have a strong and imposing scrum, but if what we’ve seen in the past is anything to go by, they don’t always really benefit from that dominance; a lot here will depend on how the referee interprets proceedings. If the first round is anything to go by, though, refs seem less inclined to reset a collapsed scrum if the ball is playable and those shorter scrum sequences might play into the Sharks’ hands just a little. I expect the home side to dominate at lineout time, especially in the second half where wily old timer Marco Wentzel will school the very tall, but very green, JP du Preez.

The breakdown battle will be a lot more even, given the absence of Jaco Kriel and the presence of Bismarck du Plessis. Derick Minnie at openside tends to stray onto the wrong side of the penalty line, which could halt the Lions’ momentum. The Sharks will need to be a lot better at protecting their own ball this week.

Neither side was good on attack in round 1, making it very hard to call the backline duel. Pat Lambie and Cobus Reinach are perhaps individually stronger than their counterparts, but the Sharks will have their hands full with the creative midfield the Lions will bring to town.

All in all, an intriguing contest and one that I find very hard to call. The Sharks will be more desperate and have a far stronger bench on which to call, so I’ll back them to edge a scrappy match by around 4 points.

Sharks – 15 SP Marais, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Waylon Murray, 12 Heimar Williams, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Tera Mtembu, 7 Renaldo Bothma, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Lubabalo Mtyanda, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis (c), 1 Dale Chadwick.
Subs – 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Thomas du Toit, 18 Matt Stevens, 19 Marco Wentzel, 20 Jean Deysel, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Fred Zeilinga, 23 André Esterhuizen.

Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Howard Mnisi, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Martin Muller, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1. Jacques van Rooyen.
Subs: 16 Robbie Coetzee, 17 Schalk van der Merwe, 18 Julian Redelinghuys, 19 JP du Preez, 20 Ruaan Lerm, 21 Faf de Klerk, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Harold Vorster.

Let’s look at the other games too.

The Hurricanes will beat the unsettled Bulls by around 6 points at Loftus. They will do the basics better and show off the benefit of a hard-working, John Plumtree-schooled pack, the sort he has brought to Loftus with good result many times in the past. Ma’a Nonu will be destoyer-in-chief at the back.

The Stormers will smash the Blues by 15, with a bonus point.The New Zealanders don’t have the pack to withstand the Cape onslaught and the likes of Juan de Jongh will revel in the resulting front-foot ball.

The Chiefs will edge the Brumbies at home by a point or two; they are probably pretty closely matched and I will go with home advantage as the differentiator.

The Waratahs will bounce back to beat the Rebels in Melbourne, by 7 or so. There’s too much class in that Tah’s side to be dire two weeks running, while the Melbournians have always battled to string together good performances week in and week out.

The Crusaders and the Highlanders will play to a draw in Dunedin. Don’t ask me how I know that, but I just do!

The Force will nail the useless Reds by about 12, consigning the Brisbane Banana Benders to pole position for the Aussie conference wooden spoon. Couldn’t happen to nicer okes, really!

Enjoy round 2 and good luck for those of you trying to make money off it!



55 Comments

  • The proof was in the pudding but you ate it. :x

  • Comment 1, posted at 19.02.15 13:55:01 by war1 Reply
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  • @war1 (Comment 1) : I’m blowing a raspberry at you :)

  • Comment 2, posted at 19.02.15 13:57:18 by robdylan Reply
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  • :lol:

  • Comment 3, posted at 19.02.15 14:02:45 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Hmmm, just like last week I have a strong feeling that the Bulls will win, hopefully, just like last week, I will be wrong. :lol:

    Chiefs Brumbies is a very close call, but I also think the Chiefs might take this one – still thinking about this one, before I make my SuperBru pick.

    Good call on Crusaerders/Highlanders. Why does that feel so right? :smile:

  • Comment 4, posted at 19.02.15 14:15:27 by Letgo Reply
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  • If you can manage 6/7, I’ll admit that you might be a genius :mrgreen: Anything less……..

  • Comment 5, posted at 19.02.15 14:23:56 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Not even gonna try pick on logic this week after last weeks nightmare

  • Comment 6, posted at 19.02.15 14:27:23 by Poisy Reply
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  • @Letgo (Comment 4) : re point 3, wish I knew the answer :)

  • Comment 7, posted at 19.02.15 14:41:12 by robdylan Reply
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  • @Letgo (Comment 4) :

    Looks like the Chiefs picked a pretty strong team this week. Got some of their All Blacks back, while Brumbies has a few guys out due to injury.

    Gotta go Chiefs then.

  • Comment 8, posted at 19.02.15 14:48:53 by Letgo Reply
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  • Please not the Stormers to win. At work – and worse – at church I had to endure snide questions about why the Sharks lost. I much prefer when the Stormers lose and those ill mannered supporters put their necks back in. I still have butterflies like last week with a feeling that the Sharks have yet to gel as a team and will lose this one too. My Superbru is more positive than my gut feeling

  • Comment 9, posted at 19.02.15 17:21:11 by SeanJeff Reply
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    SeanJeffSuper Rugby player
     
  • Supporting the Sharks teaches me about grace; no matter how they conspire to make a boo boo out of a game I still support them and come back next week with a new confidence

  • Comment 10, posted at 19.02.15 17:25:03 by SeanJeff Reply
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  • @SeanJeff (Comment 9) : I would change churches. You can come to mine…. I guarantee there are no Stormers supporters :)

  • Comment 11, posted at 19.02.15 17:32:09 by robdylan Reply
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  • @SeanJeff (Comment 10) : I like it!

  • Comment 12, posted at 19.02.15 19:09:44 by vanmartin Reply
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  • Bissie a good option to stifle lions mobile forwards. Should be a good game if we can protect the rucks. Hope giant can bring as much to the line outs as both a does. He is very talented and has a huge workrate. What interests me is we will stack up in the scrum which lions have been really strong on. Props will be tested.

  • Comment 13, posted at 19.02.15 20:05:57 by coolfusion Reply

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  • I don’t know why but I have a really bad feeling about the Sharks Lions game!!!!!! Hell I hope I’m wrong! !!!

  • Comment 14, posted at 19.02.15 20:32:09 by JD Reply
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  • After last week’s results I will do a lucky draw out of a hat for each game to determine the winner :mrgreen:

    Lions are always a tough game – gonna be very close. I might even go for the draw :shock:

  • Comment 15, posted at 19.02.15 21:51:53 by RedSharkUtd82 Reply

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  • @robdylan (Comment 11) : Your church sounds like my church… :lol:

  • Comment 16, posted at 19.02.15 22:58:34 by pastorshark Reply
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  • @JD (Comment 14) : I’m VERY nervous…but I’ve stacked up the beers on ice…that should help…

  • Comment 17, posted at 19.02.15 23:00:49 by pastorshark Reply
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  • @pastorshark (Comment 16) : my church has only one Sharks supporter, though.

  • Comment 18, posted at 19.02.15 23:04:46 by robdylan Reply
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  • I went:
    Brumbies
    Waratahs
    Hurricanes
    Highlanders
    Force
    Stormers
    Sharks
    …most of them for no particular reason…

  • Comment 19, posted at 19.02.15 23:05:26 by pastorshark Reply
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  • @robdylan (Comment 18) : I can’t say the same about mine!!! :mrgreen:

  • Comment 20, posted at 19.02.15 23:06:09 by pastorshark Reply
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  • This weekend we have a youth council strategic planning meeting. The most strategic decision was timing our braai so that we could watch the Sharks game!!!

  • Comment 21, posted at 19.02.15 23:08:17 by pastorshark Reply
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  • One aspect that will definitely play a role, especially after last week was such a mild Saturday with little humidity issues, is the fact that temperatures in the high 30′s are predicted for the whole Province on Saturday! I reckon it could get scrappy…

  • Comment 22, posted at 19.02.15 23:10:37 by pastorshark Reply
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  • I think we all hope for a better result for our boys this week. The Lions however is no walkover team and I think we are in for a great spectacle.

    I do take a “little” comfort from last week thou. Out of the pre-season favorites (In my mind any way) only two of those recorded a win. Crusaders, Tahs, Sharks and Bulls all lost and had I played Superbru I would have been hurting. Not taking anything away from the Stormers and Cheetahs thou… in fact well done to both teams.

    I think that the Bulls will however bounce back this week. The Lions lost the game last week more than the Hurricanes won it so I’m not going to read to much into the result, or for any of the other results for that matter.

    Anyway let’s hope that the Bulls and Stormers “klap” the NZL teams and good luck to our boys.

  • Comment 23, posted at 20.02.15 08:32:34 by Farlington Reply

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  • http://www.sarugbymag.co.za/blog/details/hunt-in-cocaine-charge

    Eish! :oops:

  • Comment 24, posted at 20.02.15 08:33:30 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Hope he wasnt in anyones Fantasy Teams

  • Comment 25, posted at 20.02.15 08:34:25 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Chiefs 3 – 3 brumbies 9 min

  • Comment 26, posted at 20.02.15 08:44:12 by BR Reply
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  • @JarsonX (Comment 24) : Damn … the wrong kind of white line fever you want in a Rugby Player.

  • Comment 27, posted at 20.02.15 08:45:40 by Farlington Reply

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  • Brumbies demolishing Chiefs scrum

  • Comment 28, posted at 20.02.15 08:47:57 by BR Reply
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  • Brumbies going for goal

  • Comment 29, posted at 20.02.15 08:48:32 by BR Reply
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  • :mrgreen: Clever

  • Comment 30, posted at 20.02.15 08:48:43 by JarsonX Reply
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  • 3-6 13min

  • Comment 31, posted at 20.02.15 08:48:52 by BR Reply
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  • Try chiefs

  • Comment 32, posted at 20.02.15 08:49:53 by BR Reply
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  • Dam this Chiefs is dangerous when they start to run

  • Comment 33, posted at 20.02.15 08:50:30 by BR Reply
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  • 10-6 16min

  • Comment 34, posted at 20.02.15 08:51:34 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty brumbies

  • Comment 35, posted at 20.02.15 08:53:06 by BR Reply
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  • Going for touch

  • Comment 36, posted at 20.02.15 08:53:35 by BR Reply
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  • Try brumbies

  • Comment 37, posted at 20.02.15 08:54:25 by BR Reply
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  • 10-11 21min

  • Comment 38, posted at 20.02.15 08:56:19 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty chiefs

  • Comment 39, posted at 20.02.15 08:56:58 by BR Reply
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  • Possible try chiefs

  • Comment 40, posted at 20.02.15 08:59:50 by BR Reply
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  • I have Chiefs by 3

  • Comment 41, posted at 20.02.15 09:00:11 by JarsonX Reply
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  • No try

  • Comment 42, posted at 20.02.15 09:00:20 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty Chiefs going for goal

  • Comment 43, posted at 20.02.15 09:08:39 by BR Reply
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  • 13-11 34min

  • Comment 44, posted at 20.02.15 09:10:18 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty brumbies offside

  • Comment 45, posted at 20.02.15 09:11:09 by BR Reply
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  • Opting for touch

  • Comment 46, posted at 20.02.15 09:11:31 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty brumbies Chiefs holding on this time going for goal

  • Comment 47, posted at 20.02.15 09:14:00 by BR Reply
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  • Penalty hitting the post

  • Comment 48, posted at 20.02.15 09:14:40 by BR Reply
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  • 13-11 h/t

  • Comment 49, posted at 20.02.15 09:17:13 by BR Reply
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  • So, now that I have a moment to concentrate on more important matters like rugby, it seems tomorrow is ” Do Or Die ” for our team?

    Lose tomorrow and we’ll be Wooden Spoon Contenders before you can say Week 5!

    And I thought it was just my life that spiralled out of control lately, now it seems my Sharks are determined to follow me down into the rabbit hole?!

  • Comment 50, posted at 20.02.15 13:22:51 by Original Pierre Reply
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    Original PierreSuper Rugby player
     
  • The Hurricanes will beat the unsettled Bulls by around 6 points – Canes won by 4

    The Chiefs will edge the Brumbies at home by a point or two – The Chiefs won by 2

    The Waratahs will bounce back to beat the Rebels in Melbourne, by 7 or so. – Tahs won by 10.

    MAN, I really SHOULD be playing SuperBru :)

  • Comment 51, posted at 20.02.15 23:24:05 by robdylan Reply
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  • 3 from 3 and 3 margins. I missed the bonus point in every
    game with a single point.
    Chiefs by 3
    Tahs by 9
    Canes by 5

  • Comment 52, posted at 20.02.15 23:43:01 by JarsonX Reply
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  • @JarsonX (Comment 52) : easy if you follow my predictions, boss…. All ‘m saying

  • Comment 53, posted at 21.02.15 01:14:29 by robdylan Reply
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  • @robdylan (Comment 53) : :lol:

  • Comment 54, posted at 21.02.15 05:37:05 by Ben Reply
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  • :mrgreen:

  • Comment 55, posted at 21.02.15 06:48:37 by JarsonX Reply
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