robdylan

Super Rugby 2016: Quarter-final preview and predictions


Written by Rob Otto (robdylan)

Posted in :Original Content, Super Rugby on 21 Jul 2016 at 16:07
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Right – the business end. Knock-out city. Let’s see what’s going to go down.

QF1: BRUMBIES vs HIGHLANDERS

The gulf in class between the Kiwi conference and all the others has been laid bare in the final log standings – as well as every time a Kiwi team has played one from Australia. In an amazing statistic, Aussie teams have recorded just 3 wins and a draw against New Zealand opposition from 25 starts in this year’s competition. The Highlanders suffered a bizarre 1-point loss to the Reds in their only Australian loss of the season and dispatched the Brubmies comfortably, 23-10, when the teams met in Invercargill in Round 10. It’s really hard to see the Aussies – despite being at home – prevailing against the second-best side in New Zealand, so we’ll back a Highlanders win by around 5 points.

Brumbies – 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Nigel Ah Wong, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Christian Lealiifano (cc), 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Jarrad Butler, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Blake Enever, 3 Ruan Smith, 2 Stephen Moore (cc) 1 Scott Sio.
Subs (one to be omitted): 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Leslie Leulua’iali’i-Makin, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Michael Wells, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Andrew Smith, 23 James Dargaville, 24 Lausii Taliauli.

Highlanders – 15 Ben Smith (c), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Matt Faddes, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Shane Christie (c), 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Luke Whitelock, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Subs: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Aki Seiuli, 18 Siosiua Halanukonuka, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Te Aihe Toma, 22 Fletcher Smith, 23 Rob Thompson.

QF2: HURRICANES vs SHARKS

I’m afraid the news for our boys is not good. While it’s true that the Sharks have performed better than average against Kiwi teams this year, “average” is pretty damn appalling. Kiwi sides have only been on the losing end against foreign opposition 7 times in total this season; the Sharks, along with the Lions, are the only foreign side to have recorded more than a single win against a Kiwi team, but still boast a lowly 40% success rate against the Kiwis overall. The Durbanites did beat the Canes – handsomely – in their previous meeting at Kings Park, but along with that result went the element of surprise and thee’s little chance that the Hurricanes will be as flat a second time around. Add to that the concern over game management without Pat Lambie and scrum parity without Lourens Adriaanse and you realise the Sharks are staring down the barrel. I think they will defend well and make the Hurricanes work hard, but will ultimately lack the possession to score enough points to win. Hurricanes by around 8 points on the day.

Hurricanes – 15 James Marshall, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Willis Halaholo, 11 Jason Woodward, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Michael Fatialofa, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles (c), 1 Loni Uhila.
Subs: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Mike Kainga, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Callum Gibbins, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Vince Aso, 23 Julian Savea.

Sharks – 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 André Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Garth April, 9 Michael Claassens, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Keegan Daniel, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Franco Marais, 1 Beast Mtawarira (c).
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Tera Mtembu, 21 Stefan Ungerer, 22 Curwin Bosch, 23 Odwa Ndungane.

QF3: STORMERS vs CHIEFS

Tricky to call this one, because we’ve simply not got anything to go on. The Stormers have not played a team anywhere near as good as the Chiefs yet this year. Are they going to be ready for that challenge? My feeling is that while they do have form on their side, they are going to battle as they suddenly encounter “real” Super Rugby very late in the tournament. It will be tight, but I fancy the chiefs to win by 3 points.

Stormers – 15 Jaco Taute, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Schalk Burger (c), 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi 1 Alistair Vermaak.
Subs: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Frans Malherbe (c), 19 JD Schickerling, 20 Rynhardt Elstadt, 21 Nizaam Carr, 22 Louis Schreuder, 23 Brandon Thomson.

Chiefs – Not yet announced

QF4: LIONS vs CRUSADERS

This is the toughie…. The Lions, so good at home against all comers APART from the Kiwis, face a Kiwi side. That’s not what they would have wanted, especially not this Kiwi side, since the Crusaders beat them far more comfortably last time around than the final scoreline would suggest. The same logic applies here, though, as does to the Hurricanes. Having been bitten once, the Lions aren’t going to be caught out again and will, I’m sure, be a little more circumspect when it comes to chucking the ball around. Their challenge, though, is to not let that worry detract from the game plan that has worked for them all season. The Crusaders are missing some firepower, though, with macro winger Nemani Nadolo the key omission. I’ll back the Lions to edge this one, by 5 or fewer and also by the skin of their teeth.

Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 11 Courtnal Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Warren Whiteley (c), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylon Smith.
Subs: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Corné Fourie, 18 Jacques van Rooyen, 19 Ruan Ackermann, 20 Cyle Brink, 21 Ross Cronjé, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Jaco van der Walt/Sylvian Mahuza.

Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 David Havili, 11 Jone Macilai, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Subs: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Alex Hodgman, 18 Mike Alaalatoa, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Jimmy Tupou, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Ben Volavola, 23 Kieron Fonotia.



44 Comments

  • :twisted: Highlanders by 8

  • Comment 1, posted at 21.07.16 16:10:44 by DuToit04 Reply
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  • :cool: Sharks by 12

  • Comment 2, posted at 21.07.16 16:11:09 by DuToit04 Reply
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  • I have the same picks. Still hope the Sharks make me eat hat though.

  • Comment 3, posted at 21.07.16 16:12:10 by vanmartin Reply
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  • :roll: Chiefs by 13

  • Comment 4, posted at 21.07.16 16:12:13 by DuToit04 Reply

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  • :| Lions by 9

  • Comment 5, posted at 21.07.16 16:13:07 by DuToit04 Reply

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  • Highlanders, Sharks, Saders, Chiefs my picks for the weekend, Sharks done with the heart, Saders and Chiefs if we manage to win, for me is less travel for us and more for them:)

  • Comment 6, posted at 21.07.16 16:14:43 by Henkb Reply
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  • @vanmartin (Comment 3) : mmm i have the crusaders .. joh dont know . see the Lions are favorites with the bookies and on superbru …

  • Comment 7, posted at 21.07.16 16:20:23 by Zibbie Reply
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  • A new zealand clean sweep would be a shame but i think could very well happen…

  • Comment 8, posted at 21.07.16 16:22:30 by SheldonK Reply

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  • @Zibbie (Comment 7) : If the Lions play the more intelligent rugby they have played lately, I think they will take it. Crusaders will probably tire in the last 20 minutes at Ellis after a tough derby last week. Question will be if the Lions first choice will be a bit rusty after last week’s rest.

  • Comment 9, posted at 21.07.16 16:44:59 by Bokhoring Reply
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  • @Zibbie (Comment 7) : Could easily swing either way. I’m thinking Lions because your players are fresh and you have home-ground and Highveld air advantage. Good luck!

  • Comment 10, posted at 21.07.16 16:49:20 by vanmartin Reply
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  • It’s play-offs rugby…everyone using stats and previous results for determining their winners, will go for an all kiwi semi final.

    But, that oval ball can play some funny tricks on the day – for me, flip a coin to decide who wins…even the Brumbies could spring a surprise. Go Sharks!

  • Comment 11, posted at 22.07.16 04:04:59 by FireTheLooser Reply

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  • @FireTheLooser (Comment 11) : The professional game is strange in play-offs, have to agree, there might be upsets. If you where a betting man though…all NZ sides are the safe ones to put money on.

  • Comment 12, posted at 22.07.16 07:50:45 by Quintin Reply

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  • @Henkb (Comment 6) : This would be the perfect outcome for us to have a shot at making the final.

  • Comment 13, posted at 22.07.16 07:52:24 by Quintin Reply

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  • Rob, so negative about the Sharks there mate?

  • Comment 14, posted at 22.07.16 08:25:49 by Uli Boelie Reply
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  • If you look at the teams position vs. position, you could argue that we are more or less level until you look at 9, 10, 2 and 3. Crucial positions, hope our guys take the challenge and step up their game in those positions.

  • Comment 15, posted at 22.07.16 08:34:34 by Quintin Reply

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  • OK my picks:
    Landers
    Sharks
    Saders
    Chiefs

  • Comment 16, posted at 22.07.16 08:50:19 by JD Reply
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  • @JD (Comment 16) : Would be very surprised to see a Stormers win, wonder what the odds are on that one.

  • Comment 17, posted at 22.07.16 09:00:41 by Quintin Reply

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  • @Bokhoring (Comment 9) : @vanmartin (Comment 10) :

    well lets see . good luck to you too . hoping to see you guys at Ellis park next weekend .

  • Comment 18, posted at 22.07.16 09:40:42 by Zibbie Reply
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  • @Uli Boelie (Comment 14) : Although I am normally the most positive one eyed prejudiced Sharks supporter on the planet,I have to agree with Rob there,this is a Sharks side that lacks self belief and confidence,with a lot of mercenaries playing their last game in Sharks colours who have one motivation to get the fuck out of Dodge in one piece.You could see it last time Paul Jordan played he couldn’t wait to get off the field with what turned out to be a bump.None of that Colin Meads cut the cast off I’m going on the field spirit .
    Anyways maybe this is the week we all see the genius of Gold,when Beast proves to out Ritchie and lead from the front,and Coenie turns into Os or at least limits the penalties to10.
    Still picked Sharks by 5 on Bru though.

  • Comment 19, posted at 22.07.16 10:05:27 by The hound Reply
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  • The Brumbies are boxing clever and leading 6-3 after 23 minutes…

  • Comment 20, posted at 22.07.16 10:24:03 by pastorshark Reply
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  • They just turned down a kick at posts and then stuffed up the attack though…could have been 9-3…

  • Comment 21, posted at 22.07.16 10:25:10 by pastorshark Reply
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  • Now the Landers turn down their second kickable penalty…so much for finals rugby in wet conditions…

  • Comment 22, posted at 22.07.16 10:26:04 by pastorshark Reply
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  • And they stuff up their attack and leave with no points…

  • Comment 23, posted at 22.07.16 10:26:47 by pastorshark Reply
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  • @pastorshark (Comment 22) : it could come back to bite them if they do not score!

  • Comment 24, posted at 22.07.16 10:29:24 by JD Reply
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  • Aaaand the Brumbies and Highlanders demonstrate that South African teams don’t have exclusive right on crap kicking…four shockers in a row!

  • Comment 25, posted at 22.07.16 10:29:29 by pastorshark Reply
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  • Highlanders score just before halftime…and then almost score again…they lead 6-10 at the half…

  • Comment 26, posted at 22.07.16 10:43:55 by pastorshark Reply
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  • Landers still leads heafing into the final 10mins

  • Comment 27, posted at 22.07.16 11:34:02 by JarsonX Reply
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  • 9-15

  • Comment 28, posted at 22.07.16 11:34:25 by JarsonX Reply
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  • @JarsonX (Comment 28) : Could soon be waving goodbye to Aussie interest in super rugby…

  • Comment 29, posted at 22.07.16 11:35:30 by SheldonK Reply

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  • That be awesome lol

  • Comment 30, posted at 22.07.16 11:36:29 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Brumbies attacking scrum on Lander’s try line

  • Comment 31, posted at 22.07.16 11:41:25 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Aconcerted try will win it for them

  • Comment 32, posted at 22.07.16 11:42:02 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Angus tried so hard, but in the end, not even that saved the rubbish Brumbies…..only thing worse than the Brumbies: their crowd attendance.

  • Comment 33, posted at 22.07.16 11:47:04 by FireTheLooser Reply

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  • Bye bye Aussies :grin:

  • Comment 34, posted at 22.07.16 11:47:45 by JarsonX Reply
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  • Fulltime
    Brumbies 9 – 15 Highlanders

  • Comment 35, posted at 22.07.16 11:48:28 by JarsonX Reply
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  • @FireTheLooser (Comment 33) : I heard the forecast was cold and wet and they were giving away free pies to draw crowds. I’m guessing that didn’t work.

    Anyone know the official crowd figures for the match and the capacity of the stadium?

  • Comment 36, posted at 22.07.16 11:49:52 by Hulk Reply

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  • @Hulk (Comment 36) : The Stadium is only a 25k Stadium.

  • Comment 37, posted at 22.07.16 11:53:47 by Uli Boelie Reply
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  • Ok first one correct but the next one is the big one GO SHARKS!!!!!

  • Comment 38, posted at 22.07.16 11:59:33 by JD Reply
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  • I got the Win just 2 off the margin :mrgreen:

  • Comment 39, posted at 22.07.16 13:24:25 by DuToit04 Reply

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  • so with that trend i have to adjust my margins…this means Sharks by 10!!! :mrgreen: :grin: :cool:

  • Comment 40, posted at 22.07.16 13:29:49 by DuToit04 Reply

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  • @DuToit04 (Comment 40) : OR Sharks by 6,I’ll settle for Sharks by 1.

  • Comment 41, posted at 22.07.16 14:13:03 by The hound Reply
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  • @DuToit04 (Comment 40) : @The hound (Comment 41) : Sharks by 5 points but I’d also take Sharks by one!!!!!

  • Comment 42, posted at 22.07.16 14:42:54 by JD Reply
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  • I’m hoping for one of those against all odd inspired games by sharks. We love doing those when no one is expecting it.

  • Comment 43, posted at 22.07.16 17:20:25 by coolfusion Reply

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  • I’m predicting four New Zealand teams in the semi finals.

  • Comment 44, posted at 23.07.16 07:56:21 by Ben Reply
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