Bokhoring

Jostle for the quarters


Written by Henk Terblanche (Bokhoring)

Posted in :Super Rugby on 4 Jun 2019 at 07:35

This year the dog fight for quarter final places seem more intense than usual. The SA conference is especially crowded with (apart from the Jaguares who will definitely qualify for a QF spot) there is 5 points separating the top and bottom South African teams.

I tried my hand at forecasting using the very scientific Monte Carlo simulation method based on my very unscientific probability guestimates for the outcomes of the coming games:

NOTE: For some reason on the mobile client there is a lot of white space inserted above the table so please scroll down until you see the table.

Pos Team P W D L PD LP Probability of qualifying Likely position Probability of home QF
1 Crusaders 15 10 3 2 174 53 100% 1 100%
2 Jaguares 14 9 0 5 40 41 100% 2 99.5%
3 Brumbies 14 8 0 6 40 39 100% 3 98.8%
4 Hurricanes 14 10 1 3 62 44 100% 4 100%
5 Lions 14 8 0 6 -36 35 85% 6 0.45%
6 Rebels 14 7 0 7 45 34 61% 8 1.2%
7 Bulls 14 7 1 6 20 34 69% 7 0.08%
8 Sharks 14 6 1 7 32 33 51% 9 0%
9 Chiefs 15 6 2 7 -65 31 17% 10 0%
10 Waratahs 14 6 0 8 0 30 21% 10 0%
11 Stormers 14 6 1 7 -32 30 54% 8 0%
12 Highlanders 14 5 2 7 12 29 35% 10 0%
13 Blues 14 5 1 8 -16 28 6% 12 0%
14 Reds 14 5 0 9 -41 24 0% 14 0%
15 Sunwolves 14 2 0 12 -235 12 0% 15 0%

12 teams still have a real chance to qualify with the Blues really only a mathematical chance. The Stormers edge just ahead of the Sharks to squeeze in (likely based on their home game against the Sunwolves) this week – meaning that the winner of the last game at Newlands will have the privilege of flying to Christchurch to face the Crusaders.

The home quarter finals seem to be sorted out already with Lions and Rebels having very small chances to push out the Jaguares and Brumbies.

The expected position is the average position achieved over 500 000 runs – so therefore you will see position 5 missing and multiple teams sharing the same expected position.



3 Comments

  • Thanks for the article a lot of work must have gone into it and to be honest it seems pretty accurate guesswork to me.

  • Comment 1, posted at 04.06.19 07:41:47 by Byron Wright Reply
    Vodacom Cup player
     
  • If only the Sharks were better playing in front of loyal piss willy home crowds it would have been plain sailing – thats what Rob Du Preez must have been thinking when he said that he WOULD win SupeRugby this year. ;-) :mrgreen:

  • Comment 2, posted at 04.06.19 11:02:31 by Salmonoid the Subtle Reply
    Friend of Sharksworld
    Salmonoid the SubtleAssistant coach
     
  • Nice article Henk, interesting read

  • Comment 3, posted at 04.06.19 14:30:51 by revolverocelot Reply

    Team captain
     

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