One week closer to the playoffs and the only thing that became clearer over the weekend is that the Blues are the longest shot of the seven teams still in contention.
Gregor Paul writes in the Herald on Sunday that the Crusaders are in, the Waratahs will be close enough to smell the top four if they won overnight in Pretoria and the Stormers will be in great shape if they did the business in Cape Town this morning.
The Chiefs are the other contenders with their destiny in their own hands. If they can pick up five points in Johannesburg this week the gambling fraternity will be tempted to stick the big bucks on the top four, featuring the Crusaders, Stormers, Waratahs and Chiefs.
Tempted but not entirely convinced because the Sharks, Blues and Hurricanes are all still alive, making this one of the most exciting run-ins of recent years.
With viewer interest on the wane, TV bosses will be loving the fact that with two rounds left, only one team is certain of a knockout place, with six others chasing the other three berths.
Fate has also intervened on behalf of the competition organisers as the schedule has thrown up some intriguing clashes in the final round, meaning there will be six teams with everything to play for in the final round-robin fixtures.
Even at this stage, there are too many permutations to get your head around.
One of the key points to absorb is that the Hurricanes, after taking five points against the Lions, are the best placed wild card.
They face the Force this Friday in Wellington and could come to Eden Park in the final round already on 41 points.
That’s the maximum total the Blues can reach if they defeat the Highlanders in Dunedin this week scoring four tries and then do the same against the Hurricanes.
If the Blues and Hurricanes are tied on 41 points it will come down to points differential – with the men from the capital’s differential sitting at 97 compared with the Blues on 60.
But if the Hurricanes can win in Auckland they could get to 45 or 46 points and that will make them hard to oust from the mix.
The Sharks could get to 42 points if they pick up maximums against the Cheetahs and Chiefs. If they do, that would restrict the potential maximum of the Chiefs and then everything gets too hard to piece together
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The Sharks could get to 42 points if they pick up maximums against the Cheetahs and Chiefs. If they do, that would restrict the potential maximum of the Chiefs and then everything gets too hard to piece together
My senitments exactly. 😳 So many permutations at the moment it is just frikken stupid
Even if the Sharks take max points in their next two matches, they still need teams currently in position 2-4 to lose.
Stormers v Tahs next week , so that’s a definite loss for one. Tahs 5 points ahead and Stormers 3 points ahead.
Canes play Force at home & Force are pretty much out of it. Not sure that even if they still had a realistic chance of making the semi’s they can beat the Canes away.
And lets not forget about the Chiefs. Definite win against the Lions. And for the Sharks to max points we have to say a loss against the Sharks.
So where does that leave us? Goodness knows, I’ve given myself a headache..
Saders are home and hosed. Even if tahs lose to the Stormers, they should end up on at least 42 points. And they are likely to gain bonus point against Reds.
If Stormers win both their matches it leaves them on 43 points minimum.
Canes should beat Force and probably Blues. That’s 44 points at least.
So it seems the Sharks need the Stormers and/or Canes to lose.
Canes could still reach 42 points even if the lose a match.
I need to lie down. 😕
#3 😆
#7
Sharks are screwed, seems to be the consensus
I don’t even want to do the ‘worst case scenario’ calcs. Cause we all now what that would mean. Not 1 SA team in the semi’s. 😯 👿 🙁 😥 ❗
Seems to ME to be confusing. 😉
Still a bit in denial, but I fear 42 points simply won’t be enough. But hope springs eternal… 🙄
now = know
We’re more likely to end on 40 or 41
8/9 wins seems to be the minimum required wins to make semi’s.
Last year teams 2-4 all had 42 points.
I’m off. Saw IV requires my attention.
don’t even want to do the ‘worst case scenario’ calcs. Cause we all now what that would mean. Not 1 SA team in the semi’s.
Comment 10 of 17, posted at 04.05.08 14:37:57 by racheltjiedebeer Edit
And the Bulls shouting their mouths off. 😆
I’m off. Saw IV requires my attention.
Comment 17 of 18, posted at 04.05.08 14:45:57 by racheltjiedebeer Edit
Who woulda thunk a GAY dude would be interested in Saw movies. 😆 😉
So now we need to adjust our expectations
hey it’s heavy if we don’t make it but it won’t casue me to slit my wrists 😉
Do you know of anyone we could assign to keep watch over you for a few weeks after we gwet knocked out. 😉
You win some you lose some, at least we’ve won more than we’ve lost.
My wife and kid will keep me sane 🙂