Every year around this time the “Road to the play-offs” articles start appearing, this year is no different except that there are even more roads to the play-offs this year. Jan De Koning of Rugby 365 sums it up.
[Sharksworld Note: Thank goodness Jan De Koning has done this. My brain would have exploded if I had to try and work out all the permutations. ]
Talk about a race that is wide open. The results in Round 10 mean that, mathematically, 13 of the 14 teams still have a chance of reaching the play-offs.
Now, we all know that is stretching it, but what is more interesting is how the top end of the competition in shaping up.
The top four teams have all lost three times already. It is worth noting that six times in the 13 years since inception of the professional era, the team ultimately winning the Super 12/14 had lost three of their league matches.
Another fact worth taking note of is that when the Bulls won their title in 2007, they had lost four league matches that year.
Now, back to the present.
It is going to be one hell of a run in to the play-offs, simply because so many of the big guns still have to play each other.
It all starts with the top-of-the-table Chiefs against the third-placed Bulls in Pretoria this week. And then the Chiefs also still face the fourth-placed Hurricanes a few weeks down the road.
The Sharks, currently second, have a bye this week and then have to face the Waratahs and Bulls in the coming weeks.
And so it goes on. Needless to say, a few teams are going to knock each out of the race in the last month of league action and – once again – it may go down to the wire, the last week of league action on May 15 and 16.
It may well come down to the very last league match of the season, when the Sharks host the Bulls in Durban on May 16, to sort out the final places.
So, let’s take a look at what’s in stall for each of the 14 teams!
Chiefs:
Current position: 1st
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 2: Stormers, Cape Town
May 9: v Hurricanes, Hamilton
May 15: v Brumbies, Hamilton
Sharks:
Current position: 2nd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 2: v Highlanders, Durban
May 9: v Waratahs, Durban
May 16: v Bulls, Durban
Bulls:
Current position: 3rd
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Chiefs, Pretoria
May 2: v Force, Pretoria
May 9: v Cheetahs, Pretoria
May 16: v Sharks, Durban
Hurricanes:
Current position: 4th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Brumbies, Wellington
May 1: v Blues, Wellington
May 9: v Chiefs, Hamilton
May 16: v Reds, Brisbane
Blues:
Current position: 5th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Reds, Albany
May 1: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 9: v Brumbies, Canberra
May 16: v Crusaders, Auckland
Waratahs:
Current position: 6th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 13th
Remaining matches:
April 24/25: Bye
May 1: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Sharks, Durban
May 15: v Lions, Johannesburg
Brumbies:
Current position: 7th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Hurricanes, Wellington
May 2: v Reds, Brisbane
May 9: v Blues, Canberra
May 15: v Chiefs, Hamilton
Crusaders:
Current position: 8th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
May 1: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 8: v Reds, Christchurch
May 16: v Blues, Auckland
Force:
Current position: 9th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Lions, Perth
May 2: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 9: v Stormers, Cape Town
May 16: v Highlanders, Perth
Highlanders:
Current position: 10th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Stormers, Dunedin
May 2: v Sharks, Durban
May 8: v Lions, Johannesburg
May 16: v Force, Perth
Lions:
Current position: 11th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Force, Perth
May 1: v Crusaders, Johannesburg
May 8: v Highlanders, Johannesburg
May 15: v Waratahs, Johannesburg
Stormers:
Current position: 12th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 24: v Highlanders, Dunedin
May 2: v Chiefs, Cape Town
May 9: v Force, Cape Town
May 16: v Cheetahs, Bloemfontein
Reds:
Current position: 13th
Best possible finish: 1st
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Blues, Albany
May 2: v Brumbies, Brisbane
May 8: v Crusaders, Christchurch
May 16: v Hurricanes, Brisbane
Cheetahs:
Current position: 14
Best possible finish: 7th
Worst possible finish: 14th
Remaining matches:
April 25: v Crusaders, Bloemfontein
May 1: v Waratahs, Bloemfontein
May 9: v Bulls, Pretoria
May 16: v Stormers, Bloemfontein

I know for some of them it is just a dream, but to have THIRTEEN teams still in with a methematical chance of ending 1st on the log this late in the season 😯
Please don’t send this to Rassie. 🙄
He might just continue his ridiculous assertions that we are still in with a chance of making the semis.
@wpw (Comment 2) :
I see he says he is happy to step down. 😯
@wpw (Comment 2) :
It would have been nice if there was a “probable finish” section for each team as well. 🙂
@KSA Shark © (Comment 4) :
I can’t believe we are 3rd from bottom. 😳
Wow! Now that is very interesting
Stormer’s have well and truly farked it all up for the Bulls and Sharks by not contributing against a few contenders…
Red’s, Cheetahs, Bulls, Brumbies, Lions to take their games this weekend… 😉
@bryce_in_oz (Comment 7) :
The thing is, we (Sharks and the Bulls) should not have to rely on these guys, if we win the games we should then we won’t have a problem.
If the Sharks had won the matches against the Reds and Cheetahs, then we wouldn’t be in the predicament we are now. 🙁
Some very careful fine tuning has been required of my JustRugby Fantasy League team.
I barely have enough Non Sharks in there to field a full Starting Xv this coming weekend. 🙁
Had an awesome week this past weekend though. (Other than the cock-up of trading a player who is out for the season INTO my team 😕 )
Was chatting about this with a friend of mine this morning… I believe we are in for some serious entertainment in the next 4 rounds…with no less than 8 of the teams still in with a “realistic” chance.
Hope the Sharks will use the time to rest and have another look at the drawing board cos the log will look different when they get back to the action.
Sharks forever!
How did I climb all the way up to number 11 on SB?
@blackshark – YNWA (Comment 10) :
I predict that our Super 14 log page will be one of the most popular pages over the next few weeks. 😆
Some interesting numbers
Most Log Points NOT to reach the Semi-finals
41Pts (8 Wins, 1 Draw) Stormers 2008
40Pts (9 Wins) Brumbies 2007
40Pts (7 Wins) Chiefs 2007
40Pts (8 Wins) Blues 2008
I think we are heading into similar territory this season.
@wpw (Comment 2) : he’ll tell everyone that it is wookie that has put the stormers into such a commanding position.