This is for Ice, mostly… let’s look at exactly the sequence of events that will need to unfold this weekend to allow the Sharks to sneak into the semis via the back door.
We will start the weekend in 6th position, on 36 points. That’s ahead of the Waratahs on points difference – ours is 44 to their 24.
The first game is the Chiefs (2nd on 41 points) against the Brumbies (5th on 37 points). The result in this game absolutely has to go to the Chiefs – it doesn’t really matter by how much or how many tries either team scores. So long as the Brumbies end up with at most two points from this game, a non-bonus point victory over the Bulls will see us able to pass them. Since their points difference is only 9, even if they draw with the Chiefs and get a bonus point, we will still move ahead of them, assuming we win. So, step one is simple… the Brumbies must not win. Should they win, yet fail to get a bonus point and provided they don’t rack up a huge score (unlikely since they won’t be getting a bonus point) we can still catch them provided we score a fifth point against the Bulls.
Game two is Lions v Tahs and this game holds all sorts of peril for the Sharks, since the Tahs themselves have more-or-less the same permutations at hand as we do. Assuming they beat the Lions, with a bonus point, we will need to score a bonus point victory over the Bulls to keep them at bay. They will need to beat the Lions by 20 points more than our winning margin against the Bulls. It’s a tough ask for them, but the Lions don’t really tackle, so who knows? Ideal result here is a Lions win, but a Tahs victory without a bonus point and by less than 20 will also do just fine.
Blues v Crusaders is the game where we need another massive favour. The permutations for this one are similar to the Brumbies game – we need the Crusaders to get at most 2 points from this game. A bonus-point draw for them will probably see them through ahead of us, since they have a healthy points difference. Let’s just keep things simple here and say that for us to stay alive after game three, the Blues must find a way to win this game.
Hurricanes-Reds is next and it would make our lives a lot easier if the Reds were to win. It’s a nice-to-have and might even see us possibly end 3rd if it does happen, but this result is not one of those that we really need to go our way. Force v Highlanders is also a dead rubber, as neither team can overtake us.
The Bloemfontein derby will be interesting from a Last Man Standing point of view only, with all but one of the remaining punters needing a Cheetahs victory to stay alive. The real decider will, of course, be the Sharks-Bulls match in Durban straight afterwards.
Assuming we’ve had the happy path all along, which is that the Brumbies and Crusaders have lost, while the Tahs haven’t picked up a bonus point or won by more than 20, all we’ll need to do is beat the Bulls to go through fourth. If the Tahs pick up a bonus point, then we will need to also. If the Brumbies win and provided the Chiefs score no bonus points, we’ll need to score a BP win over the Bulls and make sure that we haul in the Chiefs on points difference – there’s is currently 99!
If the Crusaders win, then we’re out of it, no matter what else happens.
Can we do it fans?
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when you put it like this, it actually doesn’t seem all that bad. Really just need the Lions to not completely roll over and (above all else) Blues to win.
didnt quite work it out like rob did but i did see that the saders MUST LOSE and ofcourse the sharks MUST WIN.
SHARKS FOREVER!!!!!!
You’ll get better odds at the casino…
@robdylan (Comment 1) :
Lions will win.
I’ve been saying it all season.
Ask Big Fish? 😆
@CapeShark (Comment 3) : the problem is there are too many variables and we only need one of them to go the wrong way.
Talk about eternal optimism.
With the current k*k attitude from the Sharks, I expect a bull mauling.
Thanks Robbo!!
Now i can start my little parayers.. 😉
The only problem with this is that the people we rely on the most, The Blues, have the potential but they don’t show it when it matters most….pretty much like us…and The Stormers…
It’s gonna be a long week of praying…followed by the mountain of beating the BULLS.
This is not for the faint-hearted…bound to get ugly!
SHARKS forever!
Just win the game with a bonus point and the rest will fall into place.
@Morné (Comment 9) : not if the saders win with a bp
@Morné (Comment 9) :
you make it sound SOOO easy…
(but I like that!)
@blackshark (Comment 8) :
Hey – we are not a bucnh of bangatte, now are we?? 😉 😆
@JarsonX (Comment 10) : nor if the brumbies win with a bp
@JarsonX (Comment 10) :
You should only worry about what you can control.
@Morné (Comment 13) : when it comes to rugby most of us cant control a thing 😛 i cant even control my blood pressure
@Morné (Comment 13) : if we were out of contention, i wouldve made peace by now, but because we still have a chance, i cant help being stressed about it
@JarsonX (Comment 14) :
True, but if they are going to prepare for this weekend with the mindset of waiting to see what teams before them do just hours before they kick off they might as well throw in the towel now.
@Morné (Comment 16) :
Similarly, the fans should support their team with the same mindset…
Maybe sent your team a fax or mail with well wishes, I am sure this site can organise it.
I will support the Sharkies, even though i don’t think they deserve to be in contention.
@Morné (Comment 16) : agree, but im not playing so my mindset doesnt matter 😆
@Prof. Ice (Comment 7) : good idea
@Morné (Comment 17) : and we’ll do just that. Rob/KSA get a link ready for us
Does anybody know what happened in the hearing of the Tahs s/h
also is brad ok?
@Fattmann (Comment 22) :
Good Q! here we are bietsing and moaning…and we forgot there is actually a PLAYER out there can can help us (togehter with my prayers) on Saturday!! 😉
@Fattmann (Comment 22) : Yeah, that was utterly despicable, i hope he gets banned for months!
@JarsonX (Comment 14) : focus on the bladder dude… all we ask
@Morné (Comment 17) :
True, cos if the other results fall into place…and the Sharks play 80 (or 85) minutes of perfect rugby against the Bulls…the mood will be very different in Durban and on Sharksworld.
@Prof. Ice (Comment 11) :
@Prof. Ice (Comment 23) : so let’s pray that Fourie du Preez doesn’t recover in time… or is that contrary to the spirit of the thing?
Going to the game on sat. Going to the game on sat. Going to the game on sat. got press box tickets!!!!!!!
@robdylan (Comment 27) :
Between us…NAH!!!! (I am sure I will be forgiven, but this time I am gonna be a little selfish!) 😳
@Fattmann (Comment 28) : lucky fish.
You think anyone will want to win tickets?
put it up as prize
question what school did Brad Barritt’s father attend
R50 for the answer money in my account first!!!!!!!
Sorry to change subject here, but i thought Charl Mcleod was outstanding, didn’t put a foot wrong the entire game. We didn’t miss Snot-klapper at all.
@ CapeShark
yeah thought he had a good game different sort of player though missed Rory’s ability to turn the opposition team with the cleaver kicks that sometimes goes out!!!!!
Charl a good backup for Rory
@CapeShark (Comment 32) :
LOL!! Snotklapper!! HAHAHAHAH
I think Charl did a great job too – very quick delivery and distribution…IMHO…
so if Charl was so good, where was the problem?
If the miracle happens and the sharks get 4th place then the bulls will most likely be 3rd with the rest of the competition being played in NZ.
So instead of a wonderful battle for 1st place to look forward to on Saturday, all that is really left for the sharks is to be spoilers.
@fyndraai (Comment 36) :
And that is your unbiased Bulls fan opinion?
Are you suggesting we throw the match? 😕
@robdylan (Comment 35) : The problem is… Charl, as a fringe player, represents a minority of the players who actually play with hunger and ambition. The rest just seem to pitch up and collect their pay cheques. I never seen such half-hearted, drab, dull and uncommitted play in all my Sharks supporting days. And that includes the amateur days when the players had nothing but pride to play for.
In two words: No Hunger
@CapeShark (Comment 32) :
Actually TOOOOOOOOOOO good with the distribution on occasion, ALMOST one dimensional in that it was almost certain that every ball was going to be passed.
From one extreme (if you believe that about Kockott, which I don’t) to the other.
@robdylan (Comment 27) : @fyndraai (Comment 36) : when it comes to the bulls i dont care about being [email protected]fyndraai (Comment 36) : and both the bulls and sharks already proofed they can win overseas
@fyndraai (Comment 36) : cry me a river, bully boy. If your guys are so good then they won’t have any difficulty in thrashing us… cos we’re KAK at the moment.
Imagine you guys lose to such a kak team! It would be almost as embarrassing as us losing to the Reds or the Cheetahs!
@KSA Shark © (Comment 39) : maybe charl was scared to mess up or being the same as rory
well, the other half of the Blues team has gone down injured as well… they’ll be sending the cleaning staff in to face up to the Crusaders.
Thanks for coming.
Could Brad Barrits inclusion, ahead of real Sharks players, in the team have had something to do with this lacklustre performance. ❓
You guys are starting to sound like desperate Stormers fans 😆
@robdylan (Comment 43) : the cleaners cant play any worse, can they 😈
@Worcestershire Sauce (Comment 45) :
Can you give us a pointer or two please? 😉
@Salmonoid (Comment 44) : your spoon is so big I can see it from here
the thing we’re missing, of course, is that the team we’re up against are going to be playing all out to secure top spot.
Remember what they did to the Reds two years ago? Watch out, Sharks, because I see another one of those coming.
@robdylan (Comment 49) : if its impossible for us to make the semis, i see the same thing happening
@JarsonX (Comment 50) : second chances dont come often
JUst heard sheehan gets of scott free the judicial officer Dekker Govender said it was accidental what a lot of BS Shafted again if it was in ausie and we had done it 4 weeks suspension
Hey robdylan maybe its time the website started a petition to get rid of people like Govender and K*K refs like…….everybody but kaplan lawrence-mark joubert jonker and maybe pierce what do we think
@Fattmann (Comment 52) : like that’s actually going to work. The old boys club closes ranks very swiftly
@robdylan (Comment 48) :
Rob, not stirring and not meaning it in a bad way either. We all agree that that was not the Sharks out there on Saturday, especially for suchan important game. Is it not possible that the the wrong signals are being sent to ALL the players when whats effectively an outsider is brought in ahead of someone thats been your teammate for the best part of 3 months plus pre-season training.
Last year in the semi’s we also deemed it necessary to bring in an outsider and it backfired. Ok Brad didnt do anything wrong but Im thinking about the psyche of the other players. Also not necessary overt but subconsciously.
Sorry must run.
@Fattmann (Comment 52) :
I posted this under the Sheehan article earlier.
“The box has been cleared.
Its a gang of thieves (or incompetants) that preside over all things rugby, I tell you. (just my opinion)”
@Salmonoid (Comment 54) : ok – valid point. Hard to say, I guess
@KSA Shark © (Comment 37) : Nope. Both teams should play to win. If the Bulls cannot beat the Sharks they do not deserve 1st place.
My disappointment is from an SA perspective. This should have been the 1st of 4 play-off matches in SA. I can understand the Sharks going to sleep against the Reds and the Cheetahs. Its the Crusaders game they should have and could have won.
All season long the Sharks have looked like a great team that is just not firing on all cylinders, while the Bulls have looked like a mid table team with a few extra wins.
So no, I do not expect the Bulls to walk it, if they win, it will be another struggle.
@Salmonoid (Comment 54) : The players (if they are really pro’s) should not be effected by something like that but it also should not be allowed by the competition rules. It would be better if all teams had a set roster with very specific windows on trades and replacements. The current system can turn into a real farce if teams start to abuse the rules and bring in new players from all over the place in the final stretch.
The Bloemfontein derby will be interesting from a Last Man Standing point of view only,
Thats assuming the Tahs win! GO LIONS!!!!
So in answer to the heading.
We want home team wins this weekend.
15 Chiefs vs Brumbies Hamilton 09:35
15 Auto & General Lions vs Waratahs Johannesburg 19:10
16 Blues vs Crusaders Auckland 09:35
16 Reds vs Hurricanes Brisbane 11:40
16 Western Force vs Highlanders Perth 13:45
16 Vodacom Cheetahs vs Vodacom Stormers Bloemfontein 16:00
16 The Sharks vs Vodacom Bulls Durban 18:05
@KSA Shark © (Comment 61) : he he… well spotted