Wow….. What a Round 10 of Super Rugby…the table now has really taken shape and the cream has risen to the top …….or has it ?
The three best sides now occupy the top three spots, however with them all yet to play each other, the final peaking order maybe yet to be decided.
My Sharksworld friends know I’m never shy to make a prediction or future selection.
So let’s focus on who the final four will be.
Without making the obvious statement that every game is important and that every point is crucial. I’ve tried to narrow it down and look at 4 games that take my interest and where the underdog may prevail.
For me there are 4 interesting games in the coming rounds that just may decide the final outcome of the table.
This is the current log (Round 10):
1. Crusaders 34
2. Bulls 34
3. Stormers 33
4. Reds 30
5. Waratahs 29
6. Brumbies 26
7. Blues 25
8. Hurricanes 22
9. Sharks 21
10. Chiefs 21
These are their remaining fixtures and my forecasted points predictions:
1. Crusaders 34 Fo(A) 4 (38), St(A) 0 (38), Bu(A) 0 (38), Br(H) 4 (42)
2. Bulls 34 Li(H) 5 (39), Sh(H) 4 (43), Cr(H) 4 (47). St(A) 0 (47)
3. Stormers 33 Re(A) 4, (37), Cr(H) 4 (41), Sh(A) 1 (42), Bu(H) 4 (46)
4. Reds 30 St(H) 0 (30), Br(A) 1 (31), Hu(A) 0 (31), Hi(H) 4 (35)
5. Waratahs 29 Br(H) 4 (33), Hi(A) 5 (38), Cf(A) 4 (42), Hu(H) 4 (46)
6. Brumbies 26 Wa(A) 0 (26), Re(H) 4 (30), Hi(H) 5 (35), Cr(A) 0 (35)
7. Blues 25 Sh(A) 0 (25), Ch(A) 5 (30), Li(A) 5 (35), Cf(H) 4 (39)
8. Hurricanes 22 Hi (A) 5 (27), Cf(H) 4 (31), Re(H) 4 (35), Wa(A) 0 (35)
9. Sharks 21, Bl(H) 4 (25), Bu(A) 0 (25), St(H) 4 (29), Fo(H) 5 (34)
10. Chiefs 21 Ch(H) 5 (26), Hu(A) 0 (26), Wa(H) 0 (26), Bl(A) 0 (26)
So my Final Log looks like this (all going to form & home advantage):
1. Bulls 47
2. Stormers 46
3. Waratahs 46
4. Crusaders 42
5. Blues 39
6. Reds 35
7. Hurricanes 35
8. Brumbies 35
9. Sharks 34
10. Chiefs 26
But obviously there will be upsets, and bonus points here and there !
So here is my proposed scenario:
I think these games could be the ones to watch….for an upset.
Round 11: Reds v Stormers
The Stormers look the most composed side to date in the competition, and if there is a side to put the Reds in their place, it is them. However the Reds could easily take this.
Forecast: Reds 4 Points Stormers 0
Round 12: Highlanders v Waratahs
Waratahs should destroy the Landers.
However…… South Africans like Kiwis are great travellers and know when they have arrived in a destination that is truly beautiful. For me on my travels I’ve never tired of Sydney and like the infamous Tony Greig, who tells anyone that will listen, it’s the greatest place on earth….it’s not…. but it sure is a top spot. Imagine that you are a Sydneysider enjoying the life as a pro footie player and then you arrive in Invercargill. Many Sharksworld fans may not be familiar with Invercargill…but friends it’s not flash. There is not many places further south on the planet to hide…and friends, Sydney it is not. With the Highlander’s this year made up of many Southlanders it will be their one chance to play in front of their home fans. The Highlanders really will be up for this one against the Aussies….they have an outside chance.
Forecast: Highlanders 4 points Waratahs 0
Round 14: Crusaders v Brumbies
The Crusaders could absolutely hammer the current Brumbies outfit by a cricket score.
However this will be the last throw of the dice for the Brumbies. It could also be George Smith’s last match for the Brumbies if he can return from injury. Add to that the Crusaders return from the Republic. Plus the fact, if they go well in South Africa their home semi or not, may already be decided.
Forecast: Brumbies 4 points Crusaders 0
Round 14: Stormers v Bulls
What a mouth watering clash in what may be a warm up to the eventual final. I feel the Stormers will start favourites at home…..but what if they lost ?
Forecast : Bulls 4 points Stormers 0
So after all this crystal ball gazing, what would the semi final table look like ?
Final Table
1. Bulls 51
2. Waratahs 42
3. Brumbies 39
4. Blues 39
5. Reds 39
6. Crusaders 38
7. Stormers 38
8. Hurricanes 35
9. Sharks 34
10. Chiefs 26
Could it happen, the simple answer is no…..but it is one scenario, what’s yours and who’s your semi finalists ?
Tweet
After seen your predictions above, it seems almost impossible for the Sharks to even hope for a chance at the semis 🙁
This is the stuff of Legends
@John Jardin (Comment 1) : John I have said it for awhile now, also think most Shark supporters know it in their hearts, we wont make a semi. We can cause some upsets though.
Think the top 3 will be Saders, Bulls and Stormers (not in that order) but they will get into a semi those 3. That how it looks so far. The race will be on for the 4th spot.
The last spot could come from, Tahs, Reds or Blues.
1. Stormers
😈
2. Bulls
3. Crusaders
4. Don’t care
@McLovin (Comment 3) 😆
@Puma (Comment 2) :
Spot on with that 1st bit. We KNOW we ain’t going to make the semis but there are STILL a few who don’t want to acknowledge that.
I will be MORE than happy with a top 6 finish from here. With the knowledge that we were screwed out of 8 points by referees softening the blow of not making a semi.
@KSA Shark © (Comment 5) : More like we were screwed with 12 points. 🙁 Think we should have got the win against Chiefs, Tahs and Brumbies. Plenty went against us with the ref in those games.
Could be sitting on 33 points. Just have to live with it.
Looking forward to us playing, Blues,Bulls and Stormers. Some really big games those.
@Puma (Comment 6) : Well we got a point in each of those games. So would have had a extra 9 had we won those. Should be sitting on 30 points now. Not 33 mistake there 😳
@Puma (Comment 6) : Please beat the Bulls. But not too badly, only so they still finish 2nd. 😈
Sorry Bulls fans.
@Puma (Comment 7) : Imagine that. 3 SA teams in the top 4. That would have been rof.
Although looking at who the author of this prediction piece is, it is probably the kiss of death for the Stormers. 😈 😉
All we need now is for KSA to make a prediction and Stormers might as well withdraw. 😛
Over & out.
@McLovin (Comment 8) : 😆 😆
@McLovin (Comment 9) : Should have been, unlucky not to have had 3 saffa sides on top. Also remember if Rory got all his kicks against the Cheetahs we would have won that game. We really could have been sitting in 4th or 3rd. Just not our year this.
@McLovin (Comment 10) :
Bulls to win the whole damn thing. 😛
@McLovin (Comment 11) : Cheers. Your photo is a real send up…… hehehehehe.
I canst believe it, all this stress and effort from the Sharks (and their supporters) and we could still only end up in 9th… 😥
Unless we win all our games…put that on your predictions and then come back to me… 😀
Check my post out tomorrow, it’s in complete contrast to this one. I’m not saying the Sharks will make the semis, but we gotta at least back them to win the rest of their games and that will give them a shot.
I’ll be the bearer of all our hope, and don’t dare rain on my parade, as long as there’s hope, there’s a chance and as long as the Sharkies keep winning there’s a chance.
@Letgo (Comment 16) : I don’t think we’ll allow our selves to win with only 4, we’ll either win with 5 log points or lose with either 1 or 2 log points.
I don’t think the Crusaders will lose against the Bulls or the Stormers.
@Letgo (Comment 18) : BUT, I’ll back your ‘never say die’ ‘SHARKS forever’ ‘black and white, nothing else matters’ attitude and I won’t be looking too far ahead but take it weekend by weekend. 😀
@FireTheLooser (Comment 19) : We don’t have to win all our games with Bonus points…it will help, a lot, but we don’t have to. Getting a Bonus point from the Blues and force games will be enough. If we keep the Blues, Bulls and Stormers from any points against us…or let me rephrase that, not it will be enough, but rather it could possibly be enough.
@Letgo (Comment 22) : Interesting, will you be revealing your permutations in an article tomorrow? I sure enjoy seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, even if it turns out to be a train 😆
@FireTheLooser (Comment 21) : Good, we have to many realists on this site. Clearly to many of us are afraid of getting burned. I quite like the burn, because I know it’s the after effect of real excitement, passion and… also fire. 😆
It’s like with the 438 game, people only got excited when the game became realistically possible for the Proteas to win it. My sister was the insane one who kept saying if they can do it we can do it and by the 4th or 5th six she had me convinced and I was calculating what we would need from every over. What an awesome game, I couldn’t speak for a whole week. It wouldn’t have been that great if I didn’t believe.
Granted that game was up to the batsman (and the weather only), the Sharks would need a couple of things to go their way, but they do have four games in their hands and I back them to to what they need to do in those games.
@FireTheLooser (Comment 23) : 😆 Yes, I have a post ready to go. I’m just struggling to get the spacing between paragraphs sorted out. Pain in the… neck. 😀
@FireTheLooser (Comment 23) : See ya tomorrow. Gotta go.
You’ll see a train coming for sure!!!
@John Jardin (Comment 1) : Not impossible…..but in reality highly unlikely ! 🙁
@KSA Shark © (Comment 5) : Unfortunately can’t see the Sharks cracking the Top 6…..Huge game Saturday v Blues !
@KSA Shark © (Comment 13) : Bulls must surely be red hot favourites to win it from here……but i agreed with your call on another thread commenting on their lack of fitness.
Reds and Waratahs have shown this year how you must play if you have any chance of beating them…..it will be interesting how the Stormers tactically approach it. 😕
I agree Sharks can statistically win all 4 remaining games with a bonus point,
Giving them 41 Points …. but it is still not enough
Waratahs 46 Bulls 43 Crusaders 42 Stormers 42
Sharks require a lot of upsets from here on in to qualify.
@Letgo (Comment 17) : Looking forward to your article
@FireTheLooser (Comment 23) : I think Letgo may be driving a train tomorrow……stay off the tracks ! 😆
Who cares? It won’t be the Sharks…again.
HH disagree about the blues though, they won’t beat the chiefs. 3 games in sa the long flight back will do them in.
You also have under estimated the Reds. The Brumbies won’t beat them and I also don’t see the hurricanes beating them.
In no specific order:
Crusaders
Reds
Stormers
Bulls/Waratahs
@try time (Comment 35) : Agreed Blues will have a tough final game….however the Chiefs are not travelling well at the minute and they could be destined to decline even further.
I think the Reds may find the Brumbies and Canes tough away….not a given.
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 37) :
The Blues will lose this weekend. Then who will be your next ‘great hope’
Waratahs??
And if they lose??
Come on bro, its the Bulls, Saders or Stormers to win the S14!! 😈
@wpw (Comment 38) : Blues are still a good chance even if they lose this weekend.
I think Blues will target 4 tries…they will have a chance this week !
But your right on the big three….don’t rule out the Brumbies yet !
I’m fairly confident that the Bulls, Stormers and Crusaders will take the top 3 spots – the 4th one might go to any one of the 3 Australian sides still in it – I’m hoping it’s the reds – they’ve been by far the most exciting of the 3. At the moment I can’t see another NZ side sneaking in there.
@MB1810 (Comment 40) : Welcome MB1810….i’ve been beating the Blues drum all season ….can’t abandon them now
I’m happy with the ref for the weekend.
Chiefs vs Cheetahs Hamilton
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia) My daughter could ref this and the result would be the same.
Reds vs Stormers Brisbane
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand) ❓
Western Force vs Crusaders in Perth
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Highlanders vs Hurricanes in Dunedin
Referee: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Waratahs vs Brumbies in Sydney
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Bulls vs Lions in Pretoria
Referee: Marius Jonker (South Africa) (bulls are gonna bitch 😆 )
Sharks vs Blues in Durban
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa) 😎
@KSA Shark © (Comment 42) : I’m pleased the Crusaders have got Kaplan 🙂
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 43) :
All the refs are decent this weekend.
THIS is the weekend where the Lions and Cheetahs could have had up and coming refs.
@KSA Shark © (Comment 44) : True who is SA #1
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 45) :
Toss up between Lawrence and Kaplan IMO.
And toss up for 3rd and 4th between Jonker and Joubert with Jonker pipping him JUST at the line IMO
@KSA Shark © (Comment 46) : I’ve always been a Kaplan ….fan but have been impressed by the lot really.
they must be close to the Top 4 in the world
Do the IRB rank their refs or is it just a case of a couple from each country on the international panel.
….meaning two of these games are short changed with international matches ❓
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 47) :
The IRB don’t rank their refs, at least not publicly, but they also do not have a ratio of refs from certain nations that need to be adhered to.
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 47) :
http://www.irb.com/newsmedia/mediazone/index.html
Look at the bottom of the above page for further info, but the current test panel is.
Barnes Wayne (RFU)
Lawrence Bryce (NZRU)
Berdos Christophe (FFR)
Lawrence Mark (SARU) 😎
Brown Keith (NZRU)
Lewis Alan (IRFU)
Clancy George (IRFU)
Owens Nigel (WRU)
Dickinson Stuart (ARU)
Pearson Dave (RFU)
Fitzgibbon Peter (IRFU)
Poite Romain (FFR)
Garces Jerome (FFR)
Pollock Chris (NZRU)
Jonker Marius (SARU) 😎
Rolland Alain (IRFU)
Joubert Craig (SARU) 😎
Small Andrew (RFU)
Kaplan Jonathan (SARU) 😎
ALL the test appointments for the Jun/Jul/Aug/Sept window.
http://www.irb.com/mm/document/training/0/100331amjune-september2010appointmentsxls_10161.pdf
@KSA Shark © (Comment 50) : Great info KSA……interesting that Dickinson doesn’t have any Tri nations Matches …
@KSA Shark © (Comment 46) :
Seems Joubert is ahead of Jonker. 😳 my mistake.
The increasing responsibility and ownership on their management of the game has come into stark reality for the world’s top level referees, with the appointments for the midyear test matches – including the Tri Nations – showing some surprising omissions.
Leading South African referee Marius Jonker has been “demoted”, after an International Rugby Board statement said that “Marius’ performance in the Scotland game was not acceptable. He must go back to the lower tier and demonstrate he has the ability to come to grips with these problems.”
His performance in the Scotland V England match in the 2010 Six Nations was considered one of the less impressive international refereeing performances.
Chris White, a long serving Englishmen on the panel, has been dropped altogether.
Jonker will referee next in the European Nations Cup, having been downgraded to the second tier to analyse if his performances merit a promotion back to the elite panel.
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 51) :
I didn’t even notice that. I have noticed how many Northern Hemisphere refs there are in the 3Ns. I wonder if it is to give them cross hemisphere exposure before the RWC?
@KSA Shark © (Comment 52) : Very harsh ….i watched that match but can’t recall even what the score was….he is quality and surely must be back quickly.
PS Wayne Barnes is a muppet 👿
@KSA Shark © (Comment 53) : Must be…… most of them are over weight and could struggle to keep up !
Well maybe not over weight….maybe just athletically slow 💡
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 54) :
Barnes isn’t bad at all. But with you being a kiwi and the result of the french game in 2007. I can understand where you are coming from.
I feel like that about Bryce lawrence. He has screwed us over but he is a good referee.
I don’t HAVE to like him though. 😆
@KSA Shark © (Comment 56) : I find Lawrence is just a ref that lets too much go…..if the game flows he’s in his element. If it is stop- start he can be horrible….i don’t think he uses advantage well !
Well thats that off my chest
His father was a good ref
Here’s a nice little stat.
Penalties conceded per Team S14
Lions: 9 + 11 + 12 + 19 + 10 + 11 + 18 + 3 + 12 = 105
Blues: 13 + 9 + 13 + 7 + 13+ 12 + 10 + 9 + 13 = 99
Chiefs: 9 + 21 + 8 + 9 + 8 + 11 + 7 + 11 + 14 = 98
Reds: 14 + 10 + 5 + 7 + 13 + 14 + 11 + 9 + 13 = 96
Force: 9 + 7 + 7 + 10 + 14 + 14+ 7 + 11 + 15 = 94
Waratahs: 9 + 12 + 12 +_ 6 + 14 + 7 + 8 + 12 + 13 = 93
Sharks: 14 + 10 + 9 + 6 + 13 + 10 + 13+ 8 + 10 = 93
Hurricanes: 12 + 12 + 14 + 11 + 6 + 11 + 12 + 13 = 91
Stormers: 11 + 12 + 12 + 10 + 6 + 10 + 13 + 9 + 7 = 90
Crusaders: 7 + 12 + 9 + 10 + 12 + 8 + 10 + 11 + 7 = 86
Highlanders: 6 + 7 + 15 + 12 + 11 + 8 + 13 + 8 + 6 = 86
Brumbies: 10 + 12 + 14 + 7+ 9 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 10 = 83
Bulls: 9 + 8 + 4 + 7 + 6+ 10 + 14 + 8 + 12 = 78
Cheetahs: 6 + 15 + 8 + 9 + 5 + 10 + 9 + 11 + 5 = 78
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 57) :
YIP he was and I do sometimes wonder how much he has helped Bryce’s career.
Stormers have had no yellow cards. 😎 With all that defending you’d have thought they would have had one or two by now. and with Schalk Burger in the team………. 😛
Sanctionary Cards per team
Blues: Y, Y
Brumbies: Y
Bulls: Y, Y
Cheetahs Y, C
Chiefs: Y,Y,Y, C, Y
Crusaders: Y, Y
Highlanders: Y, Y
Hurricanes: Y, Y, Y, Y
Lions: C, Y
Reds: Y, Y, Y, Y, Y
Sharks: Y,Y, Y
Stormers:
Waratahs: C
Western Force: Y, C, Y
Y = Yellow card
R = Red card
C = citing with suspension
@KSA Shark © (Comment 60) : Great stats …..just watching a tape of the stormers now….. look the goods.
…..lots of forwards think they are backs….got to destroy them up front …..eg Saders Scrum
@Hertford Highlander (Comment 61) :
Stats from here.
http://www.rugby365.com/tournaments/super14/news/2366972.htm
Okay beddie bye bye for me.
Almost 10pm.
They don’t call me oubaas for nothing. 😉 😳
@KSA Shark © (Comment 62) : Sleep well 😀