ITM Cup Preview Round 10

This week I am playing catch-up, with analysis that covers two rounds.

Round 10 action includes a top of the table clash between provincial minnows Taranaki and Southland. These two Unions have given the traditional superpowers something to think about this year and both look every inch title contenders. Canterbury has a potential banana-skin of a match as they travel south to Dunedin to play their southern rivals Otago. While early pace setters Counties-Manukau round the weekend out when they play the fast improving North Harbour in what will be as interesting clash to see who still look to be ‘First Division’ material next season, if not play-off contenders this year (in Counties-Manukau’s case).

Round 8 Analysis

Game 50 Waikato (6) v Southland (7) Prediction: Southland by 1-5 pts
Game 51 Manawatu (6) v Auckland (32) Prediction: Auckland by 10-15 pts
Game 52 Taranaki (31) v Canterbury (20) Prediction: Canterbury by 5-10 pts
Game 53 Wellington (17) v Hawke’s Bay (13) Prediction: Wellington by 10-15 pts
Game 54 Tasman (21) v North Harbour (28) Prediction: Tasman by 1-5 pts
Game 55 Otago (8) v Northland (13) Prediction: Otago by 1-5 pts
Game 56 Bay of Plenty (24) v Counties-Manukau (21) Prediction: Bay of Plenty by 1-5 pts
Round 8 Win Percentage 4/7 57% Season Win Percentage 37/56 66%

Round 9 Analysis

Game 57 Southland (9) v Auckland (6) Prediction: Southland by 1-5 pts
Game 58 Bay of Plenty (40) v Otago (30) Prediction: Bay of Plenty by 5-10 pts
Game 59 Canterbury (37) v Wellington (30) Prediction: Canterbury by 5-10 pts
Game 60 Hawke’s Bay (32) v Taranaki (24) Prediction: Taranaki by 10-15 pts
Game 61 Waikato (33) v Tasman (15) Prediction: Waikato by 10-15 pts
Game 62 North Harbour (44) v Manawatu (30) Prediction: North Harbour by 10-15 pts
Game 63 Counties-Manukau (40) v Northland (24) Prediction: Counties-Manukau by 1-5 pts
Round 9 Win Percentage 6/7 86% Season Win Percentage 43/63 68%

Leading Point Scorer(s) after Round 9
123 – Lachie Munro (Northland)
86 – Matt Berquist (Auckland)
84 – Trent Renata (Waikato)
84 – Robbie Robinson (Southland)
81 – Willie Ripia (Taranaki)
73 – Mike Harris (North Harbour)
71 – Glen Dickson (Otago)
71 – Colin Slade (Canterbury)
63 – Tim Nanai-Williams (Counties-Manukau)

Leading Try Scorer(s) after Round 9
8 – Robbie Fruean (Canterbury)
7 – Julian Savea (Wellington)
7 – Ashlee Tuala (Counties)
7 – Jared Payne (Northland)
7 – Leila Masaga (Waikato)
5 – Jamie Mackintosh (Southland)
5 – Telusa Veainu (Canterbury)
5 – Dean Budd (Northland)
5 – Sean Maitland (Canterbury)
5 – Matt Luamanu (North Harbour)
5 – Kurt Baker (Manawatu)
4 – Nafi Tuitavake (North Harbour)
4 – David Smith (Taranaki)

Table Movement
The ‘Top 4’ remains unchanged, with Wellington and Waikato still bubbling under the semi final spots. The big mover of the last two rounds is Bay of Plenty who join the top half of the table. In the bottom half of the table teams such as Counties-Manukau, Hawke’s Bay, and North Harbour all look in good form and pose definite problems for teams with First Division ambitions next year.

Top 4 Semi Finalists
1. Southland (34)
2. Canterbury (31)
3. Auckland (28)
4. Taranaki (28)

Destined for First Division Status – Playing with the ‘Big Boys’ in 2011
5. Wellington (27)
6. Waikato (26)
7. Bay of Plenty (26)

Second Division Bound in 2011
8. Counties-Manukau (25)
9. Northland (21)
10. North Harbour (18)
11. Hawke’s Bay (16)
12. Tasman (11)
13. Otago (10)
14. Manawatu (8)

Round 10 Match Previews

Game 64 Wellington v Bay of Plenty Prediction: Wellington by 10-15 points
Wellington will be pleased to be home after travelling to Christchurch last week. This Bay side like so many before it have played well in the first half of the season and then have faded during the second half of the season. They are starting to show signs of turning that around this season with some strong performances as we head into the play-offs. This by no means will be a walk in the park for Wellington.
Wellington ITM Cup Form:

Round 1: (H) Won 20-11 v Tasman
Round 2: (H) Lost 25-31 v Counties-Manukau
Round 3: (A) Won 35-22 v Otago
Round 4: (H) Won 26-14 v Waikato
Round 5: (H) Won 31-28 v Northland
Round 6: (A) Lost 24-36 v Manawatu
Round 7: (A) Lost 15-21 v Auckland
Round 8: (H) Won 17-13 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 9: (A) Lost 30-37 v Canterbury

Bay of Plenty ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Lost 10-13 v Waikato
Round 2: (A) Won 30-11 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 3: (H) Lost 6-11 v Auckland
Round 4: (A) Lost 15-24 v Taranaki
Round 5: (H) Won 39-29 v North Harbour
Round 6: (A) Lost 9-28 v Canterbury
Round 7: (H) Won 41-13 v Manawatu
Round 8: (H) Won 24-21 v Counties-Manukau
Round 9: (A) Won 40-30 v Otago

Game 65 Auckland v Hawke’s Bay Prediction: Auckland by 15-20 points
Hawke’s Bay caused the upset of the round last week by beating the high flying Taranaki side, however this trip to Auckland will be much tougher for the ‘Magpies’. Auckland will be deflated after failing in their tilt at lifting the ‘Shield’ last week and the Bay are sure to feel the backlash.

Auckland ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Won 36-14 v North Harbour
Round 2: (H) Lost 18-21 v Waikato
Round 3: (A) Won 11-6 v Bay of Plenty
Round 4: (H) Won 26-13 v Northland
Round 5: (A) Lost 16-35 v Canterbury
Round 6: (H) Won 27-13 v Taranaki
Round 7: (H) Won 21-15 v Wellington
Round 8: (A) Won 32-6 v Manawatu
Round 9: (A) Lost 6-9 v Southland

Hawke’s Bay ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Drew 23-23 v Canterbury
Round 2: (H) Lost 11-30 v Bay of Plenty
Round 3: (A) Lost 7-21 v Tasman
Round 4: (H) Lost 20-23 v Southland
Round 5: (A) Won 17-9 v Manawatu
Round 6: (A) Lost 16-17 v Otago
Round 7: (H) Drew 27-27 v Waikato
Round 8: (A) Lost 13-17 v Wellington
Round 9: (H) Won 32-24 v Taranaki

Game 66 Northland v Waikato Prediction: Waikato by 5-10 points
Both sides are travelling nicely at the moment but with Rene Ranger in doubt for the Northlanders it just may be enough for the visitors to get up in a close one. Waikato is starting to get some key personnel back, and are by no means out of the race for the title.

Northland ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Won 26-19 v Taranaki
Round 2: (H) Lost 24-25 v North Harbour
Round 3: (H) Won 77-8 v Manawatu
Round 4: (A) Lost 13-26 v Auckland
Round 5: (A) Lost 28-31 v Wellington
Round 6: (H) Won 33-22 v Southland
Round 7: (H) Lost 23-27 v Canterbury
Round 8: (A) Won 13-8 v Otago
Round 9: (A) Lost 24-40 v Counties-Manukau

Waikato ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Won 13-10 v Bay of Plenty
Round 2: (A) Won 21-18 v Auckland
Round 3: (H) Lost 23-33 v Taranaki
Round 4: (A) Lost 14-26 v Wellington
Round 5: (H) Won 39-3 v Counties-Manukau
Round 6: (W) Won 36-27 v North Harbour
Round 7: (A) Drew 27-27 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 8: (H) Lost 6-7 v Southland
Round 9: (H) Won 33-15 v Tasman

Game 67 Otago v Canterbury Prediction: Canterbury by 10-15 points
Otago have very little left to play for this season, however expect them to be well charged for the visit of the champions at Carisbrook. Canterbury has far too much firepower for the Southerners, but don’t be surprised to see the Otago side give plenty of cheek here at the ‘House of Pain’.
Otago ITM Cup Form:

Round 1: (A) Lost 13-29 v Counties-Manukau
Round 2: (A) Lost 12-16 v Southland
Round 3: (H) Lost 22-35 v Wellington
Round 4: (A) Lost 23-35 v North Harbour
Round 5: (H) Lost 15-25 v Taranaki
Round 6: (H) Won 17-16 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 7: (A) Won 13-11 v Tasman
Round 8: (H) Lost 8-13 v Northland
Round 9: (A) Lost 30-40 v Bay of Plenty

Canterbury ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Drew 23-23 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 2: (A) Won 26-25 v Manawatu
Round 3: (H) Won 44-22 v North Harbour
Round 4: (A) Lost 25-27 v Tasman
Round 5: (H) Won 35-16 v Auckland
Round 6: (H) Won 28-9 v Bay of Plenty
Round 7: (A) Won 27-23 v Northland
Round 8: (A) Lost 20-31 v Taranaki
Round 9: (H) Won 37-30 v Wellington

Game 68 Taranaki v Southland Prediction: Southland by 10-15 points
This looms as potentially the match of the round as two of the competition front runners clash in New Plymouth. Southland will welcome the break from defending the shield while Taranaki will look to continue their impressive 2010 ITM Cup form in front of their loyal fans after their slip-up last weekend away to Hawke’s Bay.
Taranaki ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Lost 19-26 v Northland
Round 2: (H) Won 33-11 v Tasman
Round 3: (A) Won 33-23 v Waikato
Round 4: (H) Won 24-15 v Bay of Plenty
Round 5: (A) Won 25-15 v Otago
Round 6: (A) Lost 13-27 v Auckland
Round 7: (H) Won 28-19 v Counties Manukau
Round 8: (H) Won 31-20 v Canterbury
Round 9: (A) Lost 24-32 v Hawke’s Bay

Southland ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Won 37-23 v Manawatu
Round 2: (H) Won 16-12 v Otago
Round 3: (H) Won 13-9 v Counties- Manukau
Round 4: (A) Won 23-20 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 5: (A) Won 21-16 v Tasman
Round 6: (A) Lost 22-33 v Northland
Round 7: (H) Won 47-21 v North Harbour
Round 8: (A) Won 7-6 v Waikato
Round 9: (H) Won 9-6 v Auckland

Game 69 Manawatu v Tasman Prediction: Manawatu by 1-5 points
Manawatu will be eyeing a potential win as Tasman roll into town after having two tough outings against Auckland opposition in recent weeks. Both sides will be trying to get away from the bottom of the table and get amidst the mid table congestion.
Manawatu ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Lost 23-37 v Southland
Round 2: (H) Lost 26-27 v Canterbury
Round 3: (A) Lost 8-77 v Northland
Round 4: (A) Lost 14-35 v Counties-Manukau
Round 5: (H) Lost 9-17 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 6: (H) Won 36-24 v Wellington
Round 7: (A) Lost 13-41 v Bay of Plenty
Round 8: (H) Lost 6-32 v Auckland
Round 9: (A) Lost 30-44 v North Harbour

Tasman ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (A) Lost 11-20 v Wellington
Round 2: (A) Lost 11-33 v Taranaki
Round 3: (H) Won 21-7 v Hawke’s Bay
Round 4: (H) Won 27-25 v Canterbury
Round 5: (H) Lost 16-21 v Southland
Round 6: (A) Lost 3-23 v Counties-Manukau
Round 7: (H) Lost 11-13 v Otago
Round 8: (H) Lost 21-28 v North Harbour
Round 9: (A) Lost 15-33 v Waikato

Game 70 Counties-Manukau v North Harbour Prediction: Counties-Manukau by 1-5 points
These two sides have performed tremendously well throughout the ITM Cup to date and both will still have their eyes on First Division rugby in 2011, add to that some great All Blacks in the mix both on and off the field and we have a tight and fascinating clash on our hands. This really could go either way but the ground advantage may just be enough to get Counties-Manukau home.

Counties-Manukau ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Won 29-13 v Otago
Round 2: (A) Won 31-25 v Wellington
Round 3: (A) Lost 9-13 v Southland
Round 4: (H) Won 35-14 v Manawatu
Round 5: (A) Lost 3-39 v Waikato
Round 6: (H) Won 23-3 v Tasman
Round 7: (A) Lost 19-28 v Taranaki
Round 8: (A) Lost 21-24 v Bay of Plenty
Round 9: (H) Won 40-24 v Northland

North Harbour ITM Cup Form:
Round 1: (H) Lost 14-36 v Auckland
Round 2: (A) Won 25-24 v Northland
Round 3: (A) Lost 22-44 v Canterbury
Round 4: (H) Won 35-23 v Otago
Round 5: (A) Lost 29-39 v Bay of Plenty
Round 6: (H) Lost 27-36 v Waikato
Round 7: (A) Lost 21-47 v Southland
Round 8: (A) Won 28-21 v Tasman
Round 9: (H) Won 44-30 v Manawatu