In Round 8 of the ABSA Currie Cup 2010, the Free State Cheetahs beat Western Province by 29 points to 24 at Newlands. Why is this important, you may ask?
If you were a betting man – and I guess a fair few of us are – that is the one result in the entire second round of the Currie Cup that upset a very predictable pattern. That has been THE ONLY GAME of the entire second round where a game between two of the so-called “big five” teams was one by the visiting side. The fact is, while a lot has been said about form and the chances of each of the sides, the reality is the competition has settled into a very familiar pattern and, in reality, everyone is a hell of a lot closer to everyone else than it might seem.
Let’s move onto the next not-so-strange one. Of the 9 big 5 derbies played so far in the second round, only two have seen the loser fail to finish within 7 of the winner, with the Lions’ 18-point win over Province and the Sharks 14-pointer against the Cheetahs standing out. Again, this just serves to reinforce the pattern that no team has really emerged as clear favourites in this round of games and that home-ground advantage is still a differentiator between teams that are otherwise very evenly matched.
So, does this make this weekend’s tenth and final big 5 derby, between Western Province and the Sharks, a mere formality. It should, of course. Western Province should win the game by fewer than 7 points, according to the formula. Or should they? Because the one thing that does stand out amongst all these results is that Province have, far and away, performed worse over the course of the last round against top opposition than any of their rivals. While the Bulls, Lions, Sharks and Cheetahs have all picked up wins against each other, Province have lost to all four of those sides in succession (even though their loss to the Sharks was in round 1).
A quirk in the fixture list, though, has seen Province only play a single game against top opposition at Newlands so far this round – that being the game they lost to the Cheetahs. They will take little consolation from that, though – because they were taught a lesson by the Lions and then quite well beaten by a Bulls side that, on paper, should not have been able to live with them.
So what do you think, then? Do you reckon that a narrow Province victory, in line with the pattern, is a formality? Or does the Cape side’s recent run of patchy form create just enough doubt in the mind to make a flutter on the Sharks this weekend an attractive proposition?
Tweet
Personally, WP want it more, and even though the Sharks would want to have an easier semi in Durban next weekend, Province at home will still be too strong, especially as they would like the extra revenue from hosting a semi.
Bet the farm on WP..
I’m going for WP, simply because they NEED the win more. The margin will depend on Plum’s team selection.
I agree: hunger is gonna help WP take this one – we don’t have anything to gain.
sharks will take the game by 5 points. we will try to keep the winning culture going. if plum picks charl, andre,mvovo,lambie,stefan,odwa an ludik i think that we will give them a hard day at the office. the only thing holding wp back is willem de waal. he will be the reason why they lose. he simply cant play the attacking game and we will show them how it’s done this w-end.
I’m going Sharks, for the same reason you’re going WP, Wp wants it more. This is a pressure match for them. Teams never play their best game in situations like this. The Sharks can go out there and try a few things, but still have the motivation to beat province in their own back yard, before the semi’s next week.
I was woken this morning by thunder and lightning and the first rain we’ve had since early April….what a wonderfullway to start the day. 😎
Told you yesterday, WP to take this one.
@Pokkel (Comment 6) : 😛 It started here last night the thunder and lightning. There was plenty rain during the day yesterday too. Felt great, needed this rain really bad. Have never seen it so dry here in KZN for years. So may the rain continue… 🙂
Province to win this one. Think by 5 or 7.
We don’t have pressure to win this game, Province on the other hand do and they will.
Both semi finals at the coastal cities this year. East Coast and West Coast. At least none of us have to play at altitude for the semi. 🙂 😎
Cape Town is on a war footing….Newlands will be packed, i am there ! Expect a desperate onslaught from a fully wound up WP team….even changed the training routines….with wp training at newlands on Thursday as opposed to there HQ in Bellville High Performance centre.
Our weakness is our 10…..and i am scared what AC going to do with some selections.
I also believe wp will win, desperation and home ground may swing it in a close game.
Nerves are absolutely finished….and its only wednesday….
Cant wait!
a sharks with nothing to lose and a backline that will throw the ball around… eish, that can be dangerous. i also think wp should take it, but if the sharks keep the ball away from the wp, they could suprise.
grant,can’t wait for the game on saturday. the nerves are eating away at me. think the teams are going to destroy each other. the battle in the packs are going to be huge. agree with you on your no 10. generaal de waal gaan nie die paal haal. otherwise it will be an even match. sharks by 5
come on van, why not have faith in the sharks? we will do it
If the sharks want to win they will,the stormers couldnt win the sharks when they peaked in the super14 and the sharks are alot better now.
Yes I think it is that simple.
Wait for the official team from the Sharks before all of you get to excited 😉
So, Ap and Lambie won’t play together. I’ll have to asses the team I thought Plum would pick.
He also mentioned niggles to, keegan, sykes, alberts and Al.
Plumtree is playing games with us. Release the team already.
I think maybe, here’s my guess after seeing his comments this morning.
15. Ludik, 14. Odwa. 13. Stefan . 12 Strauss 11. Mvovo 10. Pretorius 9. McLeod 8. Kanko 7. Rhodes 6. Botes 5. Al 4. Mostert 3. Jannie. 2. Bissie 1. Beast
Reserves:
Van Staden, Burden, Ndlovo, Sykes, Kockett, Adi, Lambie
Complete rest for Keegan and Alberts.
Stefan starting instead of Adi.
Strauss in for Lambie
Ndlovu in for Rhodes.
Maybe Bresler for Sykes
Province by 10-15.
Have seen too many teams capitualte when they have, quite literally, nothing to play for.
I foresee early substitutions by the Sharks if things are going well and even earlier substitutions if things are going badly.
Then add in the fact that WeePee desperately need the win, both to secure the home semi and to gain some much-needed confidence, and I dont see it ending well for the MIB.
And its a home game… and lets face it – when the chips are down I’d rather have the likes of Louw, Vermeulen and Burger on my side.
@Letgo (Comment 18) :
There is no way that side will stay with a full-strength province.
@VinChainSaw (Comment 20) :
I agree.
And yet just the other day a certain Sharks supporter claimed their B team was good enough to beat us!!
The arrogance astounds me!! 😈 😉
I some how doubt that Province have te BMT required to win when they need it the most. Think about it, apart from the semi-finals of the Super 14, when last have you seen the Cape side actually win a pressure cooker? It seems they are quick in overtaking the SHarks as the Chokers of South African rugby.
@VinChainSaw:
1. You got Louw – We got Botes, Lets see who out-fetches who. Botes has not had a bad game this season, and is way more experienced.
2. Vermeulen- we Got Kanko. If I remember correctly, Kanko showed Vermueulen a lesson the last time they met
3. Schalk could out do Rhodes, but then again, our front row can out do any front row. . . . in the World 😛
GO SHARKS !!!
@wpw (Comment 21) : Still sour grapes, ‘coz your team’s not topping the log 😈
@VinChainSaw (Comment 20) :
but then again, our front row can out do any front row. . . . in the World 😛
See what I mean?? 🙄
Ai die WP supporters 🙄 . They beat a B-side Bulls team by a huge margin and now all of a sudden they are the pick of the crop. Windgatte! 😉 😈
@Jarson (Comment 26) : Windgatte = Poepholle 😯
@Jarson (Comment 26) :
Waarvan praat jy ou maat??
You don’t hear us being windgat do you?? Sheesh!! 🙄
If wp had a better front row I would have gone with them,but its going to be difficult for them to win on the back foot.
And how did the wp lose to the bulls
@Honey Badger (Comment 29) : They couldn’t catch a high ball..that’s why they lost.
@Honey Badger (Comment 29) :
Didn’t the Sharks also lose to the Bulls at Loftus??
@wpw (Comment 31) : perhaps because they couldn’t catch a high ball 😆 😆
@VinChainSaw (Comment 20) : I don’t see why not. 😎
@wpw
Yes we did but look what was on the line for you guys,A definite home semi,but to be honest not one of us should have lost
@Richard Ferguson (Comment 1) : 😆
you seem to have more and more of these farms to give away
@rekinek (Comment 35) : I want a farm as well, I’m think vineyards actually
@Greg (Comment 32) : i think it was more of they couldn’t cath a ball 🙄 as far as I remember – though making an effort to forget it. 🙄
WP had a tough time with Bulls last week and Sharks are rested after Leopards so I will go with the Sharks. I don’t think that there is sooo much pressure on Province. They are in the semis, if not a home one then tough luck.
@Jarson (Comment 36) : that should be easy . Rich already committred himself (in writing!) so just take up his offer
i’m in a pickle when it comes to LMS – I have Sharks, WP and … Leopards left
@rekinek (Comment 40) : and no lifeline 👿
@rekinek (Comment 41) : I had that pickle last week, Bulls, Cheetahs or Leopards
@rekinek (Comment 39) : He has to be one of the biggest farmers in SA with all these farms he’s willing to lose 😈 .
@lostfish (Comment 42) : so you’re still alive – i’m assuming you did not pick leopards 😆
in my scenario there can be only one winner.
@rekinek (Comment 40) : 😈 I picked Lions for this round… and I have my lifelind 😎
@Jarson (Comment 43) : truly suspicious 😆
i see you overtook me in the talking race. 👿 Moment of distraction and now I need to catch up 🙄
@Jarson (Comment 45) : so let me guess… for the following weeks you have Leopards and … Leopards. Least you will be saved the “pickle”. 😀
@rekinek (Comment 47) : I’m pretty sure they’ll be winning their relegation matches 😀
@Jarson (Comment 48) : but is this also part of the competition ?
@rekinek (Comment 46) : You and a few others 😳 😀
@rekinek (Comment 49) : LMS is only for the round-robin stages, once that’s finished so is the game, or atleast I hope so 😕 Rob? KSA? Some clarity please 🙂
@Jarson (Comment 51) : Has to be cause in S14 u only get to pick each team once, so semi final time there’s no teams left to pick.
@Jarson (Comment 51) : after this round we are all left with 2 teams to still pick so it would make sense that it carries on for semis and final. The winless leopards obviously messed it all up.
I wish the minnows were more competitive. otherwise why not make CC for 6 teams and shorter since S15 is longer .
@Jarson (Comment 52) : Not really. There are 14 rounds in S14 and 14 teams. Each team plays 13 games + 1 week bye.
CC has a different format. no byes. 8 teams x2 and playing 14 rounds.
2. To win the competition the player will need to be The Last Man Standing at any stage during the 14 pool rounds of the Currie Cup competition.
@Jarson (Comment 55) : there is still about 40 or more players alive , about 15 with lifeline – so they may be some rule addittion like during S14. Perhaps you will talk your way through
9. Should the pool stages of the competition be completed and more than one player is still standing then a tie break will be used to decide the winner.
@rekinek (Comment 56) : Perhaps
@Jarson (Comment 58) : gonna finish up and go home now – just don’t talk too much 😆
cheerio 😛
@Jarson (Comment 51) : krek
this suggests that The Sharks and WP will go all out this weekend. 😐 Lets say WP win, so we’ve got a semi in Durbs, a semi in Cape Town. 🙂 The Bulls play the Kwasse, The Cheetahs play the Luiperds. They will not be that “sore” after their matches…… 👿 According to the pattern, We might even have a final in Bloem. 😥 Thats just crazy… But patterns ❓ ❗ are there to be broken 😈 🙂
I want to see the Sharks team before I speculate too much.
Based on what I read yesterday Sharks might have the edge up front, as expected.
Problem is, I get the feeling wp will want this one more than the Sharks so I`m a little worried.
What are the chances of Mark Lawrence running out?
@Charlie (Comment 27) : Hey people in Cape have reason to be Windgat.
Not necessarily because of their rugby team though . .. 😈
@Original Pierre (Comment 62) : Normally my SB picks has been made by now. This time I’m waiting for the teams to be released first.
@Jarson (Comment 64) : My SB is so stuffed because of the Lions this year I might as well go ahead and throw my predictions now. Dead in the Water . . . 🙁