robdylan

Super Rugby 2011: Round 5 preview and predictions


Written by Rob Otto (robdylan)

Posted in :Original Content, Super Rugby on 17 Mar 2011 at 07:00
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Once again, we returned a pretty mixed bag of results last week, with a few games not going the way we thought they would. In fact, it was out worst week so far, with us getting the result wrong in no fewer than three of the six games played. That sort of 50% record isn’t going to fly in round five, so let’s start making some better picks!

CHIEFS vs SHARKS, HAMILTON, FRI 08:35

This one should be easy to call, because the Sharks are, quite simply, a far better team than the Chiefs this year. Making it a bit harder, though, is the fact that it’s the notorious third game on tour, although the fact that it’s also the last for the Sharks might negate that to an extent. Then again, if you’re only as good as your last game, the Sharks have far greater things to be worried about, such as the porous midfield defence against the Rebels! Anyway, we’re not shy to back our boys through thick and thin, so we’ll give this one to the Sharks, by about 7 points.

Chiefs – 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Tana Umaga, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Liam Messam (Captain), 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Scott Waldrom, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Nathan White, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Ben May.
Subs: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 Sona Taumalolo, 18 Romana Graham, 19 Fritz Lee, 20 Taniela Moa, 21 Mike Delany, 22 Dwayne Sweeney.

Sharks – 15 Louis Ludik, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Patrick Lambie, 9. Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Keegan Daniel, 5 Alistair Hargreaves, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 John Smit (Captain).
Subs: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Tendai Mtawarira, 18 Anton Bresler, 19 Jacques Botes, 20 Conrad Hoffmann, 21 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 22 Adrian Jacobs.

REDS vs REBELS, BRISBANE, FRI 11:40

Aussie derbies are always tough and the Rebels continue to defy the form book every time they play. The Reds have been disappointing this year and if the Rebels play anything like they did against the Sharks, it should be a walk in the park for them. The Rebels, though, have struggled to string two good performances together in a row thus far and I feel that trend will continue, with the monumental effort against the Sharks last week taking its toll. Reds to win by less than 5.

Reds – 15 Ben Lucas, 14 Rod Davies, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (Captain), 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Beau Robinson, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Ben Daley.
Subs: 16 James Hanson, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Radike Samo, 19 Ed Quirk, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Mike Harris, 22 Luke Morahan.

Rebels – 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Afusipa Taumoepeau, 13 Lachlan Mitchell, 12 Stirling Mortlock (Captain), 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 Danny Cipriani, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve, 7 Tom Chamberlain, 6 Jarrod Saffy, 5 Adam Byrnes, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Nic Henderson.
Subs: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Laurie Weeks, 18. Hugh Pyle, 19 Tim Davidson, 20 Richard Kingi, 21 Peter Betham, 22 Luke Rooney.

HIGHLANDERS vs CRUSADERS, DUNEDIN, SAT 06:30

Ah – isn’t this the stuff Super Rugby dreams are made of? A top-of-the Kiwi-conference clash between the early pace-setters and the current form team. The Highlanders, much though I’d love them to prove me wrong, will battle to live with the fearsome Cru, especially after a long trip back from SA. Crusaders by 10 or more, without even seeing the team sheets.

Highlanders – TBC

Crusaders – 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Adam Whitelock, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Chris Jack, 19 Jonathan Poff, 20 Kahn Fotuali’i, 21 Matt Berquist, 22 Zac Guildford.

BLUES vs HURRICANES, AUCKLAND, SAT 08:35

This is going to be the cliffhanger of the weekend – and one I really don’t fancy calling. The Canes seem determined to do everything the hard way this season and laboured to a pretty unimpressive win over the Chiefs in their only successful outing to date. The Blues, in contrast, have blown hot and cold in equal parts as they typically do, but I’m going to back them here based on the fact that they’ll want to pick themselves up after a draw against the Force. Tight games often go the way of the home team, so for that reason, I’ll say Blues by 5.

Blues – 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Rene Ranger, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Benson Stanley, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Kurtis Haiu, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (captain), 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Matt Luamanu, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Lachie Munro, 22 Sherwin Stowers.

Hurricanes – 15 Cory Jane, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Andre Taylor, 10 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 9 Chris Eaton, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Anthony Perenise, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Tyson Keats, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Jayden Hayward.

WARATAHS vs CHEETAHS, SYDNEY, SAT 10:40

There’s death and taxes – and then there’s knowing that the Cheetahs don’t stand a hope in hell of winning this game. The Tahs could pick the Randwick 3rd side and still rack up a bonus point win. Waratahs by 30.

Waratahs – 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Afa Pakalani, 13 Lachie Turner, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Pat McCutcheon, 6 Ben Mowen, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm (c), 3 Al Baxter, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Benn Robinson.
Subs: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Brendan McKibbin, 21 Daniel Halangahu, 22 Ryan Cross.

Cheetahs – 15. Riaan Viljoen, 14. Philip Snyman, 13. Robert Ebersohn, 12. Andries Strauss (Captain), 11. Fabian Juries, 10. Sias Ebersohn, 9. Tewis de Bruyn, 8. Ashley Johnson, 7. Philip Van der Walt, 6. Heinrich Brussow, 5. Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4. Martin Muller, 3. WP Nel, 2. Ryno Barnes, 1. Coenie Oosthuizen

Replacements: 16. Skipper Badenhorst, 17. Lourens Adriaanse, 18. Frans Viljoen, 19. Kabamba Floors, 20. Francois (FS) Uys, 21. Sarel Pretorius, 22. Naas Olivier

LIONS vs FORCE, JOHANNESBURG, SAT 17:05

John Mitchell’s old team against his new one… one thing that unfortunately does stay the same for the likeable Kiwi is that he doesn’t win too many games in this competition! The Force are really punching above their weight this season and came close against the Reds and even drew with the Blues, neither of those games in which they should have had a prayer. They’ve got some ugly injury problems though and the Lions have their tail up after finally winning after about 9 years, so I reckon Mitch’s new team will take this one. It wont be convincing, though. Lions by fewer than 5.

Lions – 15. Jaco Taute, 14. Lionel Mapoe, 13. Jannie Boshoff, 12. Waylon Murray, 11. Michael Killian, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Rory Kockott, 8. Warren Whiteley, 7. Josh Strauss, 6. Derick Minnie, 5. Franco van der Merwe (captain), 4. Wikus van Heerden, 3. Patric Cilliers, 2. Bandise Maku, 1. JC Janse van Rensburg

Substitutes: 16. Martin Bezuidenhout, 17. Kevin Buys, 18. Michael Rhodes, 19. Baywatch Grobbelaar, 20. Jano Vermaak, 21. Burton Francis, 22. Deon van Rensburg

Force – 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Alfie Mafi, 13 Nick Cummins, 12 Gene Fairbanks, 11 David Smith, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Ben Whittaker, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Nathan Charles, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Tom Hockings, 19 Tevita Metuisela, 20 James Stannard, 21 Matt Brandon, 22 Pat Dellit.

BULLS vs STORMERS, PRETORIA, SAT 19:10

Another interesting one to call, but one that I fear will only have one winner. The Stormers, quite simply put, have neither the firepower nor the mental strength to win at Loftus. Sure, the Bulls are in pretty shoddy form at the moment, but that loss to the Highlanders will sting them into some sort of resurgence and I simply don’t see them losing a second home game in quick succession. The Stormers have to date shown no sign of a threatening attacking game either, so the Bulls will do their usual trick and bully out a 7 point win.

Bulls – 15 Zane Kirchner , 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (Captain), 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Subs: 16 Gary Botha, 17 Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Derick Kuün, 21 Francois Hougaard, 22 Francois Brummer.

Stormers – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Danie Poolman, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers (Captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Pieter Louw, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Rynhardt Elstadt, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Wicus Blaauw.
Subs: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Nick Koster, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Gary van Aswegen, 22 Juan de Jongh.


29 Comments

  • For how long will Phil Waugh be out??

  • Comment 1, posted at 17.03.11 07:26:21 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • I got 5/6 last weekend, the 1 I got wrong ended in a draw 🙄
    Got exactly the same picks for this round allthough margins may differ 😛

  • Comment 2, posted at 17.03.11 07:30:05 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • Rob isn’t the lions game on Saturday? 🙂

  • Comment 3, posted at 17.03.11 07:30:45 by Ben Reply
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  • Will be interesting to see your pick for next week’s game. Saders vs Sharks.

  • Comment 4, posted at 17.03.11 07:33:01 by Ben Reply
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  • @Ben (Comment 4) : I plead the 5th 😛

  • Comment 5, posted at 17.03.11 07:34:46 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • The Stormers have great defense and the Bulls defense is very poor. The Stormers might just take this game if they can keep the Bulls out….not easy to call though.

  • Comment 6, posted at 17.03.11 07:58:05 by Pokkel Reply
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  • Spot on.

  • Comment 7, posted at 17.03.11 08:01:19 by Speed7 Reply

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  • me thinks Lions will struggle without Doppies. The Force will be difficult.

  • Comment 8, posted at 17.03.11 09:17:21 by rekinek Reply
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  • Also would be interesting if Highlanders could cause an upset win over Crusaders. Though considering the jetlag from SA and Crusaders recent form I guess rather unlikely.

  • Comment 9, posted at 17.03.11 09:19:51 by rekinek Reply
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  • @Pokkel (Comment 6) : But would the Stormers play the right kind of game against the Bulls?

    Defense is one thing but if you kick everything away you can`t expect to keep on winning.

    Highlanders showed how to kill the bulls. Run them off their feet and hold on to the ball. As soon as their huge forwards gets tired you get the upper hand.

    I`m not convinced the Stormers know how to do this.

    Under normal circumstances I`d be a huge Stormer supporter when they face the Bulls, but as Rob pointed out, it might benefit the Sharks if the bulls get a result here. ( 9 – 0 would suffice 😈 ). Problem is . . . can I actually support the Bulls?

  • Comment 10, posted at 17.03.11 09:32:01 by Original Champion Reply
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  • @rekinek (Comment 8) : Forgot about Doppies and Kamana 😳 Can I mail SB to change my pick?

  • Comment 11, posted at 17.03.11 09:33:02 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • @Original Champion (Comment 10) : sometimes this kind of sacrifice is necessary. 😆 Show your commitment ❗

  • Comment 12, posted at 17.03.11 09:35:07 by rekinek Reply
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  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 11) : uhhh. i’m afraid nothing less than special application on medical grounds (insanity would do ) to the general … :mrgreen:

  • Comment 13, posted at 17.03.11 09:36:07 by rekinek Reply
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  • @rekinek (Comment 13) : Once he has taken a look at my recent performance, and sees that I’m no threat to anyone, he’ll be quite willing to help me out 😛

  • Comment 14, posted at 17.03.11 09:47:27 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • oh man, look at that Chiefs backline – why is it that such a talented side has played so bad?? hope they click only in a few weeks time… 🙁 to be honest, ive got a bad feeling about this one. 🙁

  • Comment 15, posted at 17.03.11 09:58:14 by VanWilder Reply

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  • @VanWilder, me too!! Eish.

  • Comment 16, posted at 17.03.11 11:13:59 by Crock Reply

    Crock
     
  • @Crock (Comment 16) : i think everyone knows that, if we pitch up and play like we did against the rebels, we will surely be found wanting. this game will ask extra of the guys. hope they are up to it…

  • Comment 17, posted at 17.03.11 11:17:44 by VanWilder Reply

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  • Spot on picks Rob..

    I hope you get 7 from 7..

  • Comment 18, posted at 17.03.11 12:29:25 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 1) : Does anyone know?

  • Comment 19, posted at 17.03.11 12:49:40 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • @Crock (Comment 16) : thought u said the other day u had a goos feeling???

  • Comment 20, posted at 17.03.11 13:33:55 by Ice Reply
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  • @Ice (Comment 20) : I have a good feeling. I always do when I see the boys in black and white! I think the Rebels gave us a bit of a wake up call. Not so sure about Twickers and the Saders though. A tough game, morally and physically.

  • Comment 21, posted at 17.03.11 13:45:52 by SharonvanWyk Reply
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    Shaz
     
  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 1) :

    The experienced flanker failed to return after half-time in his side’s resounding 30-6 win in Sydney after suffering a knock, with early press reports suggesting that he could be out for up to three months with a ruptured biceps tendon.

  • Comment 22, posted at 17.03.11 14:18:25 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 22) : Ouch, guess I’ll have to make another injury enforced trade 🙄 Thanks.

  • Comment 23, posted at 17.03.11 14:21:15 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 23) :

    Ive been so unlucky with injuries..

    Juan Smith and Waugh as well as Pocock..

  • Comment 24, posted at 17.03.11 14:26:21 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 24) : JPP and Waugh here. Know anything about the Waratahs hooker, Polota-nau?

  • Comment 25, posted at 17.03.11 14:29:50 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 25) :

    I have taken him out of my starting team..

    Let me check what I can find..

  • Comment 26, posted at 17.03.11 14:32:06 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • @Jarson (AddicteD) (Comment 25) :

    Here we go:

    WALLABIES hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau has been cleared of a serious knee injury.
    But the is still expected to be rested from the NSW Waratahs’ next Super rugby match with the Cheetahs in Sydney on Saturday week.

    Polota-Nau left the field midway through the Waratahs’ 33-18 loss to the Crusaders in Nelson last Friday night.

    An MRI scan showed Polota-Nau has sustained posterior cruciate ligament damage rather than anterior cruciate ligament, which would have required reconstructive surgery.

  • Comment 27, posted at 17.03.11 14:33:42 by Richard Ferguson Reply
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  • @Richard Ferguson (Comment 27) : Thanks, almost had to trade him aswell 🙄

  • Comment 28, posted at 17.03.11 14:58:56 by Jarson (AddicteD) Reply
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  • You can get 5 to one on the Rebels this weekend.

    They came so close against us and lets face it, the Reds haven`t been in top form this year . .

    Might be worth a shot?

  • Comment 29, posted at 17.03.11 17:58:54 by Original Champion Reply
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