Letgo

Time for predictions – Lions, Reds, Rebels


Written by Maria Delport (Letgo)

Posted in :Admin on 19 Apr 2012 at 08:41

Segment five of our time for predictions articles.

Have a look at the  spreadsheet that I am using to compress all the results, fixtures and predictions for this year into one page, I also saved it in a PDF. The spreadsheet is meant to work like a graph. Each team is listed on the left, top to bottom. Rows represents the teams and columns represent “played against”. The “example” will give you a clear idea of how to read the spreadsheet. You can also go to segment 1, Time for predictions – Blues, Brumbies, Bulls for a more complete explanation.

So lets have a look at three more teams:

Lions 15th

Ah, the Lions, ensuring bonus point victories for all. It’s sad really. They won the Currie Cup, they outplayed everyone then, and now nothing is going their way. I’m not talking about the injuries, it all went very wrong very fast. Even their lone win against the Cheetahs was not convincing enough. They have never looked like threatening other teams. Sure their losses have been close enough for 3 bonus point losses but they weren’t unlucky to lose, they never even looked like winning. It’s unfortunate really. We all had hope for them, I think. The motivation is there, play better or don’t play in this competition again. Why has it all been so uninspiring?

Like the Blues, even a full house may not be enough to get the Lions to the top, but it might be enough to redeem their season and more importantly save their asses from relegation. If they could win against the Chiefs, the Blues, the Reds, the Stormers and the Bulls, even if they lose a few in between, it could prove that they’re not just the free bonus point game. It could also prove that they should be given another shot to take part in this competition. The thing is they will probably only win one or at most two more and who can then argue that they should not be relegated out of this competition. Maybe those other guys will be worse but even if they are the Lions are making it hard for them to be much worse. And it’s not about how hard you try or how competitive you were, if you don’t win you might as well have not played at all.

They still have to play:

Brumbies, Chiefs, Blues, Reds, Force, Sharks, Stormers, Rebels, Bulls and have one more bye.

I’m predicting a win for them against the Rebels or maybe it will come against the Force? They also like to make a scene and make their one game against the log leaders, so perhaps the Bulls or the Sharks? That one victory and a couple of bonus points for effort will give them 21 points. They won’t end last in my predictions but rather second to last just above the Rebels.

Reds 9th

They started off without Quade Cooper but still managed to string together a few lucky wins, only to be stopped by the Sharks and squashed by the Bulls. It’s not easy with twelve injuries – that’s the only problem I can see with this team. They managed a win against the Brumbies just before their bye but before Cooper and a few of these injuries come back they won’t be the team of last year and won’t manage to pull off the magical and unlikely victories they did last year. They’re still fighting but it will be tough to do enough to put themselves in the position to have a chance to defend their title.

I’m backing them in all the rest of their local derbies and this gives them 12 points. Added to that they also have to face the bonus point team and the Blues, that could be 8 more resulting in 41 plus the bye for a final tally of 45. They will have to get two to three more victories against the Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders and Stormers and that will be a tough ask. Cooper should be on the verge of return and so must be some of the other 12 players but I don’t know if it will be enough.

They still have to play:

Stormers, Blues, Crusaders, Chiefs, Lions, Brumbies, Rebels, Highlanders, Waratahs and have one more bye.

When I made my predictions I apparently had more faith in them then and now with losses against only the Crusaders and the Chiefs. Chances are the Stormers or at least one of the other teams will sneak in another win against them and leave them hanging on 50. According to my predictions they’ll get 54 and be the only Australian team in the top 6.

Rebels 12th

I don’t enjoy the Rebels. I do enjoy some of the other smaller sucky teams for entertainment value but not the Rebels. I don’t get them. They’re supposed to be exciting but they rarely deliver on that promise even when they try and for me the sad thing is that they do try. You see them flinging balls out to their expensive new signings who jump and goose and side step like maniacs but nothing ever happens. They don’t score a lot of tries, they don’t give away that many either, nothing happens and then they lose. It’s a snooze. I feel like instead of promotion/relegation there should be relegation and that’s it. Again, it’s very unfortunate and Super Rugby is not an easy competition to step into but even though I like the 5 log points when my team is playing, I do not like the feeling uncompetitiveness that it creates around this competition. It kills a great contest and an exciting competition.

They’ll probably win a few more. Not that it matters because with half of the games still to play, the Rebels will need to win all the rest of their games to stay in the competition. I think they’ll win against the most unlikely opposition again, get really excited about it and continue losing after that. Does every competition need teams like these? If they aren’t playing will two or three other teams take their place because these teams don’t have the bottom teams to take log points from anymore?

Teams they still have to play:

Waratahs, Bulls, Crusaders, Force, Hurricanes, Brumbies, Reds, Lions, Stormers and have one more bye.

I gave them a couple of bonus points for 15th place and a total of 20 log points.


Final Log
1 Crusaders 64
2 Stormers 63
4 Sharks 62
5 Bulls 60
6 Chiefs 59
3 Reds 54
7 Brumbies 52
8 Highlanders 51
9 Hurricanes 47
10 Waratahs 41
11 Cheetahs 35
12 Force 32
13 Blues 29
14 Lions 21
15 Rebels 20

I also have a log that I update each week to see how the weekend’s results affected my predictions.

First I have the current log, and what I predicted the log to be in week 8. I predicted a win for the Stormers against the Crusaders, so that prediction is indicated in red. Then I have my predicted final week log, with the movement that my wrong predictions caused indicated in the column before the log points. After that in the grey columns I have the logs as it would progress every week.

I will be sure to post my log as I get new results, to show how this effects the final log.


2 Comments

  • The Lions only gave away 2 bonus points for 4 or more tries against the Bulls(5) and the Sharks(4), other than that there defence wasnt as weak as everybody keeps saying against the onther theams the only conceded Cheetahs(1), Hurricanes(3), Stormers(2), Crusaders(2) and Cheetahs(2)

  • Comment 1, posted at 19.04.12 10:29:46 by Mutley Reply
    Author
    Mutley
     
  • @Mutley (Comment 1) : Okay, you’re right, this year they have been playing conservatively and lost, so just ensuring victories for all. e.

  • Comment 2, posted at 19.04.12 10:39:43 by Letgo Reply
    Friend of Sharksworld Author
    Letgo
     

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