Predictions & Posibilities

Written by Maria Delport (Letgo)

Posted in :Bulls, Cheetahs, Lions, Original Content, Other SA Teams, Sharks, Stormers, Super Rugby on 18 May 2012 at 08:03

A little light reading of things to take into consideration when watching this weekend’s games, but before I start here’s a few things to consider before reading anything into my predictions.

A prediction is made by using the knowledge and information you have on a subject and predicting an outcome or result based on that knowledge. Basically, it’s a calculated guess or ‘guesstimation’.

A few important things when looking at a specific prediction.

The prediction can only be as accurate as that person’s knowledge, experience and basically their qualification to make that specific prediction. The more in depth knowledge and understanding you have of the specific topic the more accurate your prediction will be (In my case then obviously extremely accurate 😉 ).

The predictor’s justification for the prediction will determine the accuracy of the outcome. A predictor purely motivated by the accuracy of the outcome would then have better results than the predictor with a secondary or alternative justification.

This brings me to bias and emotion. Unfortunately no matter how hard we try, it will always be difficult to remove this from the equation.

Have a look at my predictions analyses, but keep in mind that my justification for this analysis is based on the Sharks and their chances. For those of you who like everthing from a ‘Sharks Angle”, read on as I have a quick look at all the teams, their games, our predictions and how this will influence the final log.

Let’s start off with the team on a bye this weekend.

Chiefs – They still have to play: (Home/Away)

 1 Bye 2 Wins (Blues/Highlanders) 15 More Log Points 45 Current Log Points 60 Final Log Points 2 Current Log Position 5 Final Log Position

They’ll get the automatic 4 from the bye and the almost automatic 4 from the Blues, but from there they’ll have to do all the work. They could easily win against all 5 remaining teams on current form, but could just as easily lose against 4 of them. One would have to say that the Bulls and Crusaders would be their biggest challenge, with the Highlanders and the Hurricanes also posing a big threat considering that they will have the home advantage and have been in really good form at stages this year. If the Chiefs can take 4 log points from their game against the Bulls we should back them from there in the hope that they could push the rest of their New Zealand conference teams lower down the log, as our chances of passing them from there would be highly improbable.

From here I’ll go through it game by game, starting with the first game kicking off later this morning.

Brumbies vs Hurricanes

Robs pick – Hurricanes

Punters pick – Hurricanes

My pick – Hurricanes

Brumbies

Hurricanes/Reds/Force/Rebels/Waratahs/Blues

 3 Wins (Force/Rebels/Blues) 15 More Log Points 39 Current Log Points 54 Final Log Points 3 Current Log Position 7 Final Log Position

They’re only 3 log points ahead of us (The Sharks), but it doesn’t matter really does it, because they’re not really chasing the pack and the pack can’t really chase them, all they need to do is win the rest of their derby matches. As a Sharks supporter I’m backing the Brumbies for the rest of the season, as any team that wants to leapfrog them on the log, would have to overtake the top team in their conference first anyway.

Hurricanes

 1 Bye 4 Wins (Brumbies/Rebels/Waratahs/Chiefs) 17 More Log Points 34 Current Log Points 51 Final log Points 8 Current Log Position 8 Final Log Position

The Hurricanes are only 2 log points behind the Sharks, so a loss here for them would certainly give us breathing space, but if one looks at their upcoming games this is actually one where we should back them, since the chances of them beating both the Crusaders and the Chiefs in the last 3 weeks are slim and aside from that, if the Sharks want to realistically stand a chance of improving on last year, they should prove that they are good enough by winning their own games in anyway.

Highlanders vs Bulls

Rob’s Pick – Bulls

Punters Pick – Highlanders

My Pick – Highlanders

Highlanders

 1 Bye 2 Wins (Blues/Bulls or Reds) 15 More Log points 35 Current Log Points 50 Final Log Points 7 Current Log Position 9 Final Log Position

Only 1 log point behind the Sharks, they will have a tough time against the Bulls, Crusaders, Chiefs and even Reds (the way the Reds are playing now). The Bulls may be slight favorites, but as a Sharks supporter, go for the Highlanders in this one, with the games they still have left I don’t think they’re the team the Sharks should be worried about.

Bulls

Highlanders/Chiefs/Stormers/Cheetahs/Sharks/Lions

 3 Wins (Chiefs/Cheetahs/Lions) 14 More Log Points 46 Current Log Points 60 Final Log Points 1 Current Log Position 4 Final Log Position

They are 10 log points ahead of The Sharks, which ultimately means to pass them, they need to lose at the very least 2 more times and we need to get a few more bonus points than they do. They only have 2 more “easy games” left. So if they lose against the Highlanders this week and we can take them in week 17 then we could be close to them, especially if they also get unstuck against one of the Chiefs or the Stormers

Blues/Bye/Highlanders/Hurricanes/Chiefs/Force

 1 Bye 5 Wins (Blues/Highlanders/Hurricanes/Chiefs/Force) 24 More Log Points 37 Current Log Points 61 Final Log Points 5 Current Log Position 2 Final Log Position

Only 1 log point ahead of the Sharks, if one more team can cause an upset and beat them (they’ve build the type of reputation that any loss is an upset) then the Sharks could possibly pass them on the log. Their most likely loss is against the Chiefs in their only remaining away game, if they do lose they will end on a possible 57 and the Chiefs a possible 64, which means ending above the top ranked New Zealand team may not be on the cards, unless there’s a few upsets in my predictions.

Blues

 1 Bye 1 Win (Force) 10 Log points 16 Current Log Points 26 Final Log Points 3 Current Log Points 13 Final Log position

They’re out of this competition, but still have to play 4 of the top contenders, which means at most they can have a pretty big influence on how the log ends up looking. The chances are slim to none, but if they find the form they promised even before the season started and win a couple of those derbies and the Brumbies it would not only hurt these teams as they would now bank on this game to be one of the sure 4 points to come, but also help the Sharks in their hopes of climbing a little further up the log.

Reds vs Lions

Rob’s Pick – Reds

Punters Pick – Reds

My Pick – Reds

Reds

Lions/Brumbies/Bye/Rebels/Highlanders/Waratahs

 1 Bye 5 Wins (Lions/Brumbies/Rebels/Highlanders/Waratahs) 24 More Log Points 31 Current Log Points 55 Final Log Points 9 Current Log Position 3 Final Log position

Five log points behind the Sharks, it looks like they might be coming into some form and getting reinforcements just at the right time. I’m backing them to make it 5 from 5 in the last 6 weeks. Just another reason why the Sharks can’t afford to drop even 1 game. Too many teams are chasing from behind, the Reds being one of them. A few things to note with the games they still have to play is their week 15 clash against the Brumbies would most probably push either them or the Brumbies out of the race for the top 6, the game against the Highlanders another team vying for a top 6 spot, could also be very interesting with it being the penultimate game of the season.

Lions

Reds/Force/Sharks/Stormers/Rebels/Bulls

 1 Win (Rebels) 7 More Log Points 14 Current Log Points 21 Final Log points 15 Current Log Position 15 Final Log Position

Hopelessly waiting for Super Rugby elimination, like the Blues they still have a chance to ruffle some feathers against 4 top teams, but unlike the Blues the only people who ever believed there was any promise of bigger things were the die hards celebrating after their 2011 Currie Cup win.

Sharks vs Cheetahs

Rob’s Pick – Sharks

Punters Pick – Sharks

My Pick – Sharks

Sharks

Cheetahs/Stormers/Lions/Bye/Bulls/Cheetahs

 1 Bye 5 Wins (Cheetahs/Stormers/Lions/Bulls/Cheetahs) (It will be extremely hard, but it can be done, or it just has to be) 24 More Log Points 36 Current Log Points 60 Final Log Points 6 Current Log Position 6 Final Log position

There’s no way around it, for the Sharks to be successful this year it is non negotiable, we need 5 victories from 5 derby games. We may still slip into the Top 6 if at least 3 of the current 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th placed teams slip up at least once, but the chances are that one of those teams will then overtake us and take that final top 6 spot. Here’s the thing, if we can’t win these 5 games, we probably won’t get much further than that play-off game anyway, so it wouldn’t even matter. Three home games, two away, each of them will bring their own challenges and all of them will be extremely tough and physical. One thing’s for sure, it will be great to see it done.

Cheetahs

Sharks/Waratahs/Bye/Bulls/Stormers/Sharks

 1 Bye 1 Win (Waratahs) 10 More Log Points 27 Current Log Points 37 Final Log Points 10 Current Log Position 11 Final Log Position

Don’t count them out to still win any of their games. You have to feel for this team, they just can’t pull through those wins that they build all the momentum to take. I would say the top 3 South African teams better watch out, they won’t back off, I won’t mind if they get wins against 2 of the 3, as long as those 2 aren’t the Sharks.

Stormers vs Waratahs

Rob’s Pick – Stormers

Punters Pick – Stormers (with caution)

My Pick – Stormers

Stormers

Waratahs/Sharks/Bulls/Lions/Cheetahs/Rebels

 5 Wins (Waratahs/Bulls/Lions/Cheetahs/Rebels) 21 More Log points 45 Current Log Points 66 Final Log points 4 Current Log Position 1 Final Log position

They’re only 9 points ahead of the Sharks and surprisingly even though they’ve only dropped one game this season, they could find the lack of bonus points this season may still have them in trouble. I know it’s ridiculous to even think something like this, but they didn’t have their best game last week, while the Waratahs looked good against the Bulls and if they don’t watch out they’ll be only 5 or 4 log points ahead of the 6th placed team and then have two more difficult away games against first the Sharks and then the Bulls. This weekend will be very crucial for them… go waratahs 😈 !

Waratahs

Stormers/Cheetahs/Hurricanes/Bye/Brumbies/Reds

 1 Bye 1 Win (Brumbies) 14 Log Points 27 Current Log Points 37 Final Log Points 11 Current Log Position 10 Final Log Position

They have only won four games this season and although they’ve shown some promise to come back and step up to a better level, they’re really only at a reasonably respectable position, because they’re in a weak conference and the Sharks forgot how to defend against them. Will they be able to make a final impact on this year’s competition against any of the 5 teams they have to play still in the race for the Top 6? I think they have it in them to do it in one or two games.

Force vs Rebels

Rob’s Pick – Rebels

Punters (reluctant) Pick – Rebels

My Pick – Force (given the Rebels’ reputation of playing one good game then bad, I have them up for a win on SuperBru though)

Force

 1 Bye 2 Wins (Rebels/Lions) 14 More Log Points 18 Current Log Points 32 Final Log Points 13 Current Log Position 12 Final Log position

You would imagine that the Crusaders won’t allow them to cause another upset against them, but the Force could still cause an upset, you never know with these derby games. If the Brumbies lose this one, it could spell the end for them and open the door for the Reds and further mocking of the Australian teams as their top team would then probably have less points than the lowest ranked Top 6 team and possibly even teams not making it into the Top 6.

Rebels

Force/Hurricanes/Brumbies/Reds/Lions/Stormers

 0 Wins (Seems unfair given that they did beat the Crusaders, not that it even matters) 2 More Log Points 24 Current Log Points 26 Final Log Points 14 Current Log Position 14 Final Log Position

It would be great if they go ahead and cause 2 or three more upsets, given what we saw this weekend you really can’t put it past them to do so. They have a chance to cause a significant upset in 4 more games.

Final Log

 1 Stormers 66 2 Crusaders 61 4 Bulls 60 5 Chiefs 60 6 Sharks 60 3 Reds 55 7 Brumbies 54 8 Hurricanes 51 9 Highlanders 50 10 Waratahs 41 11 Cheetahs 37 12 Force 32 13 Blues 29 14 Rebels 26 15 Lions 21

 Lots of work there Letgo. I don’t however think that the Crusaders are all that great this year. I doubt they will win all their remaining matches. Even the guys on RE:Union aren’t very optimistic about their chances. Comment 1, posted at 18.05.12 08:29:06 by Pokkel
 @Pokkel (Comment 1) : Three of their remaining Derby games will be really though, but they have the home advantage for 2. It’s hard for me to back the Highlanders against them, they’ve had a drop in form and only a few weeks ago the Hurricanes got smashed. It’s only the Chiefs that I think will be a really close one. Comment 2, posted at 18.05.12 08:37:33 by Letgo
 I just don’t see the Stormers ending 5 points ahead of the next contender. I think the Stormers will struggle against the Bulls at Loftus Comment 3, posted at 18.05.12 08:42:29 by Bokhoring
 My opinion: We are too far from the end to predict close to what is going to happen. I think the break for the Internationals will throw a spanner in the works for those last three weekends, and anything can happen. My predictions – The Bulls to finish top in SA, beating the Stormers in their big derby match coming up, with the Crusaders sneaking in at the top of the NZ conference. Don’t write off the Hurricanes chances either though, they have a nice run in. For the Aussie conference.. Who cares? We will beat any of the Brumbies or Reds easily.. Comment 4, posted at 18.05.12 08:47:25 by Richard Ferguson
 I also reckon the Bulls will top the SA conf, the Saders the NZ The question will just be who tops the log Comment 5, posted at 18.05.12 08:53:13 by Bokhoring
 @Bokhoring (Comment 5) : It can only really be the Bulls that finish top.. The Stormers’ lack of bonus points will prevent that from happening, unless they somehow score a few over the next few matches and the Bulls don’t.. But I just cannot see that. The Stormers are playing Championship winning rugby on a weekly basis though, so I would not rule them out for lifting the Cup after the Final though.. Comment 6, posted at 18.05.12 08:57:26 by Richard Ferguson
 The odds are stacked against the SA team coming second in the conf. One extra game – plus most likely travel involved Comment 7, posted at 18.05.12 09:00:36 by Bokhoring
 @Bokhoring (Comment 7) : If they come second on the SA conference, and fourth overall, they will have a home ‘quarter final’ One extra home game, not necessarily a travel stint.. Comment 8, posted at 18.05.12 09:03:19 by Richard Ferguson
 @Richard Ferguson (Comment 8) : Depends who tops the log Comment 9, posted at 18.05.12 09:06:02 by Bokhoring
 @Bokhoring (Comment 9) : I don’t understand what you are trying to say? If they finish fourth, which the Stormers will if they do not finish top of the SA conference, then they will have a home ‘quarter’ After that, who knows what happens.. My point is, the extra game to compete in the semi will not be an away game for them.. Comment 10, posted at 18.05.12 09:08:03 by Richard Ferguson
 If the Chiefs / Crusaders tops the log, means they have to travel to NZ for the semi If the Bulls top the log, means they have the semi at Loftus Comment 11, posted at 18.05.12 09:12:02 by Bokhoring
 @Bokhoring (Comment 11) : Agreed, but taking what I said in my earlier comment (that the Bulls will top the log), then there will no travel for them.. Comment 12, posted at 18.05.12 09:13:40 by Richard Ferguson
 Correct – the ideal situation for SA is a team at 1 and the next team at 4 Comment 13, posted at 18.05.12 09:15:59 by Bokhoring
 But a situation of 2 and 4 will stack the odds against us Comment 14, posted at 18.05.12 09:20:53 by Bokhoring
 The prediction can only be as accurate as that person’s knowledge, experience and basically their qualification to make that specific prediction. And emotion. 😛 Comment 15, posted at 18.05.12 11:02:52 by KSA Shark ©
 This didn’t get off to good a start. Brumbies won instead of losing. Bulls lost instead of winning. You may have to rewrite this article tomorrow. 🙂 Comment 16, posted at 19.05.12 09:58:30 by KSA Shark ©
 @KSA Shark © (Comment 16) : You mean the Brumbies won instead of losing. Comment 17, posted at 19.05.12 10:29:23 by Ben
 @Ben (Comment 17) : Yip that’s what i meant. 😀 Comment 18, posted at 19.05.12 10:37:31 by KSA Shark ©